Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centre-right United List won Latvia's parliamentary election with 35.4 percent of the vote and 42 seats in the 100-seat parliament, preliminary results showed Sunday. Local media called it a record in the country's post-independence history. Yet populist parties also surged, including among Latvia's Russian-speaking minority, as fears about Russia and the cost of living shaped the campaign.
With more than 99.9 percent of votes counted, the result points to a continued pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course for Latvia, a NATO and European Union member since 2004, 22 years ago.
A Win Short of a Settled Majority
Kulbergs, who became prime minister five months ago, in May, said the result was higher than he expected and matched the lead shown in exit polls. "That means people truly want change," he said, describing that change as "economic growth" and "a future for (Latvia's) children."
The victory doesn't guarantee a stable government, though. His pre-election coalition isn't expected to survive in its current form. One member looked set to lose its seats, and others performed worse than hoped.
Cost of Living at the Centre
The campaign wasn't only about security. Rising living costs, low wages, a strained healthcare system and long-term population decline featured prominently in debates. Populist parties drew support on those concerns.
Latvia First, a conservative party run by a property magnate often compared with US President Donald Trump, looked set to finish second. The Sovereign Power party, which campaigned on the cost of living, looked set to finish third. Both appeared to benefit from changed voting patterns among Russian speakers, who make up a third of Latvia's population.
Russian speakers had long rallied around Harmony, a party broadly seen as pro-Russia that once ranked as the country's largest. Its support collapsed in the last election, held shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the party lost its parliamentary representation.
Security and Ukraine
Security remains central to Latvian politics in the fifth year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Latvia views Russia as its main security threat and has sharply increased defence spending in response.
Most parties expected to enter parliament support high military spending and continued aid to Kyiv. Sovereign Power is the exception: it opposes military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defence spending. Detractors have criticised it as pro-Russian, and most major parties have ruled out working with it.
Kulbergs tied the economy to the country's position on the EU's frontier. "Because we are the external border of Europe, we must have a strong economy... a strong border region," he said. "That is the main task."
Why This Matters: Latvia's result shows a pro-European government can win decisively and still face voters who feel the cost of living and weak public services. Low wages, a strained healthcare system and population decline all featured in the campaign, and populist parties gained ground on those concerns. From a pro-European perspective, the test for Kulbergs and for Brussels is whether support for Ukraine and higher defence spending can come with visible improvements in daily life, so economic frustration doesn't pull voters toward parties that oppose aid to Kyiv. Coalition talks will show whether a government can hold together around that task. Most major parties have ruled out working with Sovereign Power, leaving the arithmetic of a new coalition to the parties that remain.