Latvia’s United List won 42 of parliament’s 100 seats, with more than 99.9 percent of votes counted, as Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs put border security among the country’s main tasks. The centre-right party took 35.4 percent, state television reported, giving it a record seat total in the post-independence history of the former Soviet republic.
A border region under pressure
“We are the external border of Europe, so we must have a strong economy... a strong border region,” Kulbergs said. “That’s the main task.” He linked economic strength to Latvia’s position on Europe’s external frontier, while campaign debates also centred on rising living costs, low wages, a strained healthcare system and long-term population decline.
The result signals a continuing pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. Latvia has belonged to NATO and the European Union since 2004, and it sees Russia as its main security threat. In response, the country has sharply raised defence spending.
Security remains at the centre of Latvian politics in the fifth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Most parties expected to enter parliament back high military spending and continued aid to Kyiv. Sovereign Power is the exception: it opposes military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defence spending.
Russian-speaking voters and shifting support
Populist parties picked up support during a campaign shaped by concerns about neighbouring Russia and the cost of living. Both were viewed as gaining from changed voting patterns among Russian speakers, who make up a third of Latvia’s population.
For years, many Russian-speaking voters rallied behind Harmony, broadly viewed as pro-Russia and once Latvia’s largest party. Harmony’s support collapsed in the election held soon after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and voters removed the party from parliament.
Latvia First, a conservative party led by a property magnate often compared with US President Donald Trump, looked set to finish second. Sovereign Power appeared likely to place third after campaigning on the cost of living. Critics have called it pro-Russian, and most major parties have ruled out working with it.
The preliminary results point to a shift in political alignment among Russian-speaking voters, but the results report gives no breakdown of votes by language group and no figures on migration or Latvia’s ethnic composition. It also doesn’t specify the border policies the parties proposed. The campaign account identifies Latvia’s external-border position and population decline as issues, without linking that decline to migration.
Coalition and the next government
Kulbergs, who took office as prime minister in May, said the result exceeded expectations and matched the lead in exit polls. “That means people truly want change,” he said, calling for “economic growth” and “a future for (Latvia’s) children.”
His pre-election coalition probably won’t continue in its current form. One member appeared set to lose its seats, while other coalition partners fell short of hopes. United List now holds a record number of seats, but the preliminary results leave the next governing coalition unsettled.
Latvia’s voters have given the incumbent party a strong mandate while delivering a substantial showing for populist parties. The reported results put border security, defence, living costs and population decline on the campaign’s political agenda; they don’t establish a new migration policy or a change in Latvia’s border rules.