Opposition Leader Angus Taylor promised Tuesday to cut temporary visa holders by about 650,000 over four years and bring net overseas migration down to 100,000 a year in the first two years of a Coalition government. He also said the policy would leave the federal budget neutral. But he didn't release figures to prove it.
Taylor called the plan “the biggest cut to immigration in the history of this country.” The target would rise to 130,000 in the third year and 160,000 in the fourth. Net overseas migration, long-term arrivals minus departures, stood at 292,100 in the year to March, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. “Australia should be a home, not a hotel,” Taylor said. “And right now, we’re seeing under Labor a guest worker economy.”
The Policy
The Coalition would abolish temporary graduate visas, while keeping limited post-study pathways for PhD, health and education graduates and students at regional universities. International student commencements would be capped at 240,000. Most students couldn’t bring dependents, and each student visa would be tied to the institution where the student enrolled. The humanitarian intake would be halved to 10,000 a year, while onshore asylum claims would face a 30-day limit.
Bridging visas would take the steepest hit. The ABC reported the number would fall from about 414,000 to 20,000. People making a second or later temporary visa application would generally have to leave Australia and apply offshore.
Taylor also outlined an offset. The Coalition would add 100,000 skilled migrant visas, including about 60,000 additional temporary skilled visa holders and 15,000 new skilled project visas a year for major projects. The talent and innovation allocation would double to 7,000 through a new AUKUS and Five Eyes visa. Permanent applicants would be ranked by age, income, English-language proficiency and skilled partners. The Coalition would scrap Labor’s caps on second- and third-year working holiday-maker extensions, and raise fees instead.
The Budget Question
Taylor called the economics “simple.” A student or temporary graduate visa holder contributes an average of $7,000 to $14,000 in taxes, he said, compared with more than $30,000 for a temporary skilled visa holder. “We are very, very confident that that simple approach – reducing the numbers but raising the standards – ensures that it’s budget neutral and will strengthen the economy, improve productivity, improve competitiveness, improve the skills,” he said.
The Coalition released no costings and no modelling of the broader economic impact. Taylor said the party had worked with the Parliamentary Budget Office and would release costings closer to the 2028 federal election. The Guardian reported the Coalition hadn’t clarified whether the PBO had actually modelled the policy. The paper also said it remained unclear how the Coalition could add about 100,000 skilled visas in selected industries when those visas are currently demand-driven. Labor said the only way to raise uncapped visa numbers would be to let migrants arrive without a job offer. Questions also remained about the difficulty and expense of eliminating bridging visas, which people use while awaiting processing.
Business Pushback
Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry boss Andrew McKellar called arbitrary migration targets misguided and said they would hurt the economy. “Business rejects the false binary that Australia must choose either fewer migrants with higher skills or more migrants with lower skills,” he said.
Taylor said the plan leaves room for working holiday-makers needed to pick fruit and work in rural and regional hospitality. Home affairs spokesman Jonno Duniam said it “has thought, and effort, analysis put into it” and aims to ensure the country has the workers it needs to keep the economy functioning.
The Political Squeeze
The announcement came as One Nation gained ground with its tough-on-migration platform. One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce said, “I congratulate the Coalition for basically coming up with our policy.” Asked about economic effects, he said Australians wanted lower migration and dismissed the need for costings. Pauline Hanson called the Coalition’s position “a photocopy” of her party’s policy, arriving “late to the grand final.”
Nationals leader Matt Canavan said the measures would “take back our country” from temporary migrants, whom he accused of undercutting Australian wages. “We are a country, not a campground,” he said.
Labor’s own changes take effect Friday. Its target is net overseas migration of 245,000 by June next year and 225,000 by the middle of 2028. The ABC reported the Coalition’s targets go further. The Guardian noted Taylor’s plan sits below the roughly 160,000 Peter Dutton proposed before the previous election.
Why This Matters:
Migration policy affects wages, housing, infrastructure and the budget all at once. This proposal arrives without figures to test it. The Coalition says the plan is budget neutral, yet it has promised costings only near the 2028 election. Business groups warn rigid numerical targets can strain employers who depend on flexible labour. Supporters say lower numbers ease pressure on roads, schools and housing. From a fiscal perspective, voters deserve to see the modelling before weighing a change this large. The contest with One Nation also shows how competitive pressure can push major parties toward bolder promises than their analysis may support.