The Liberal-National Coalition would cut temporary visa holders by about 650,000 over four years, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor said Tuesday. Under a Coalition government, net overseas migration would fall to 100,000 a year in its first two years, then rise to 130,000 in the third and 160,000 in the fourth.
Taylor announced the policy at a Sydney press conference with deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume. He called it “the biggest cut to immigration in the history of this country.” “Australia should be a home, not a hotel,” he said. “And right now, we're seeing under Labor a guest worker economy.”
The proposed cuts
The Coalition would bring net overseas migration—the number of long-term arrivals minus departures—from 292,000 down to 100,000 in the first two years. The Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded 292,100 people in the year to March, and the ABC cited the same figure from data released the previous month. The ABC said the Coalition's targets would put migration at its lowest level outside the pandemic since 2004.
The plan would abolish temporary graduate visas, while keeping limited post-study pathways for PhD, health and education graduates and people studying at regional universities. It would cap international student commencements at 240,000, restrict most students from bringing dependents and link each student visa to the institution where the student enrolled. The Coalition also proposed halving the humanitarian intake to 10,000 a year and setting a 30-day limit for people seeking to make an onshore asylum claim.
The ABC put the planned reduction in bridging visas at the largest of all, from about 414,000 to 20,000. Taylor said temporary visa holders applying for a second or subsequent temporary visa would generally need to leave Australia and apply offshore, which would reduce bridging visa numbers.
Taylor said the temporary visa cuts would come alongside 100,000 more skilled migrant visas. The plan includes about 60,000 additional temporary skilled visa holders and 15,000 new skilled project visas a year for major projects. It would double the talent and innovation allocation to 7,000 through a new AUKUS and Five Eyes visa. Permanent applicants would get priority based on factors including age, income, English-language proficiency and skilled partners.
Political pressure and competing targets
The Coalition unveiled its plan after months of migration debate in Canberra, as One Nation gained support with a tough-on-migration platform. One Nation had proposed cutting 750,000 temporary visas over three years and pushing net overseas migration into negative territory, before targeting 130,000 in the fourth year or setting a “ceiling” of 130,000 reviewed annually.
One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce said his party was driving the political agenda. “I congratulate the Coalition for basically coming up with our policy,” Joyce told Nine's Today show. “We are moving both the Labor Party, we're moving the Coalition.” One Nation leader Pauline Hanson called the Coalition's position “a photocopy” of her party's policy and said it had arrived “late to the grand final.” She said One Nation had “dragged” the major parties “kicking and screaming” into the debate.
Labor was aiming for net overseas migration of 245,000 by June the following year and 225,000 by the middle of 2028. The Coalition's targets would go further. Labor's visa changes, announced the previous month and due to take effect on Friday, mainly target students, their families and working holiday-makers.
Costs and unanswered questions
Taylor said the policy would be neutral for the federal budget, but the Coalition released no costings or modelling of its broader economic impact. He said the party had worked with the Parliamentary Budget Office and promised to release costings closer to the 2028 federal election.
Taylor said student or temporary graduate visa holders contributed an average of $7,000 to $14,000 in taxes, compared with more than $30,000 for a temporary skilled visa holder. He called the economics “simple”: reducing numbers while raising standards, he said, would be budget neutral and strengthen the economy.
Business groups and asylum-seeker advocates criticized the policy. Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry boss Andrew McKellar said arbitrary migration targets were misguided and would hurt the economy. “Business rejects the false binary that Australia must choose either fewer migrants with higher skills or more migrants with lower skills,” he said. Jana Favero of the Asylum Seeker Resource Centre said Taylor was out of touch with everyday Australians and criticized the Coalition for focusing on migration instead of rent, mortgages and food costs.