Senate Spoiler Panic Exposes Parties' Grip on Choice

Republicans fear Libertarian candidates could draw enough votes from Republican nominees to affect control of the U.S. Senate in Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa. In these close races, voters dissatisfied with the major-party choices are already being counted as a risk to party power.

"Some libertarians supported him thinking he was an anti-war candidate. And that's where he's lost them," said Ted Brown, the Libertarian candidate in Texas. Brown added: "But my view and a lot of libertarians' view is that separation of powers is very important. This president has seized way too much power in this imperial presidency."

Who Gets to Count as a Spoiler

The states lean Republican, but party strategists say dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump could push some conservatives toward protest ballots. An unpopular war with Iran and Trump's expansion of executive power could strengthen the Libertarian message of nonintervention and limited centralized authority. The ballot becomes a battlefield over which party controls the chamber, while voters' reasons for rejecting a major-party candidate get translated into arithmetic for party strategists.

Gene Krebs, a Republican former Ohio state lawmaker, is working on a project to diminish the impact of spoiler candidates. "Libertarians, we believe, could draw enough votes to affect the outcome in a number of these races," Krebs said. The Republican campaign apparatus is watching Ohio, Kansas and Texas more closely than Iowa, where Libertarians aren't a regular presence on the ballot, according to Republican Senate campaign officials speaking anonymously about internal strategy.

In Ohio, former Libertarian Party national chairman Bill Redpath is running against Republican Sen. Jon Husted and Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown. Krebs warned: "The Libertarian can easily pull enough votes away from the Republican so that the Democrat wins." The language of spoiler politics treats votes as property that one candidate can take from another, even as voters make their own choices.

Money Moves Across the Ballot

Third parties can also be used against Democrats. An organization with Republican ties distributed fliers promoting a socialist candidate in what appeared to be an effort to draw support away from Brown. Enough Promises Ohio PAC sent the fliers and received $2.5 million from Conservative Americans PAC, according to federal disclosure reports. The strategy puts organized money behind a campaign designed to influence how voters divide their support.

Kansas offers another close contest: Libertarian David Graham is running against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton. Graham is running for the second time. He received 3% of the vote in a race Republican Sen. Jerry Moran won by 23 percentage points.

Texas has a tighter race than in 2024, when Libertarian Ted Brown received 2.3% of the vote as Republican Sen. Ted Cruz easily won another term. This year, Democratic nominee James Talarico faces Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Wayne Hamilton, a former executive director of the Texas Republican Party, said Paxton's legal and ethical problems could lead conservatives to consider another option. "Nobody's voting for the Libertarian. It's a protest vote," Hamilton said. "They are going to be voting that way because they don't want to vote for Paxton, and this is an option."

A Protest Vote in a Money-Heavy Race

Brown said he doesn't expect to compete with Paxton and Talarico for the seat. His campaign budget is about $30,000, and it has spent $7,000 on advertising, including a spot on streaming services in four Texas counties where Libertarians have done better in recent elections. Talarico, Paxton and aligned groups have spent about $390 million in combined advertising since the May 26 primary, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Brown received 267,039 votes in 2024, a record for his party in a Texas Senate race. He said a strong result on Nov. 3 would mean matching that total, which would represent a higher percentage in the lower-turnout midterm. He supported Ron Paul's presidential campaign in 1988 and has long been active in the Libertarian Party.

Brown dismissed Republicans' criticism that he was spoiling Paxton's chances. "They could avoid that problem by nominating a better candidate," he said. He said he tells Democrats the same thing: "You can't spoil a system that's already rotten. There are a lot of people making a protest vote, and there's good reason to."