Israel and the US launched Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury on February 28, saying they aimed to create conditions for regime change in Iran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike on a bunker in Tehran. Iran’s defense minister and several IRGC generals were also killed in what became the IAF’s largest-ever aerial operation. Iran retaliated with missile attacks across the Middle East, targeting Gulf states and US military bases in the region. Since February 28, ballistic missile attacks on Israel have killed 39 IDF soldiers and 23 civilians, while injuring at least 7,693 others. CENTCOM said 18 US soldiers were also killed. A ceasefire was announced on April 7 and took effect the following day.
The State Monopoly on Violence
The numbers tell the story the press releases try to sand down. Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury were launched by Israel and the US with the stated aim of creating conditions for regime change in Iran. That’s the old imperial grammar in fresh paint: air power, command centers, and the promise that one set of rulers can rearrange another country’s political order from above. The result was not liberation. It was a wider war, and the dead came from every side except the people who ordered it.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike on a bunker in Tehran. Iran’s defense minister and several IRGC generals were also killed in what the report describes as the IAF’s largest-ever aerial operation. Iran answered with missile attacks across the Middle East, including against Gulf states and US military bases in the region. The machinery of state power moved, and ordinary people were left to absorb the blast radius.
Since February 28, ballistic missile attacks on Israel have killed 39 IDF soldiers and 23 civilians, while injuring at least 7,693 others. CENTCOM said 18 US soldiers were also killed. A ceasefire was announced on April 7 and took effect the following day. The ceasefire stopped the shooting, not the logic that produced it.
Diplomacy, Threats, and the Usual Theater
Trump rejected an Iranian proposal and said on Saturday that he "rejected their deal" and that Iran should "immediately open the Hormuz Strait ... because they have no money coming in." He also said he expects the war to continue after the midterm elections. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian state media IRNA on Saturday night, "No one can accuse the Islamic Republic of failing to explore the diplomatic path." Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said, "We will die but we will not bow our heads," and said Tehran no longer trusts talks with the US.
That’s the diplomatic racket in plain view. One side talks about deals while threatening a chokepoint. The other side insists it tried diplomacy while saying it no longer trusts talks with Washington. The language changes. The hierarchy doesn’t.
Iran fired anti-ship missiles toward the Strait of Hormuz, according to the report. The USS George Washington was shown in the Arabian Sea on September 13, 2026, with the aircraft carrier enforcing a US naval blockade against Iran and providing cover for commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade and the missiles sit at opposite ends of the same state system, each claiming necessity, each making civilians and commercial traffic part of the battlefield.
The Regional Security Industry
A US official toured countries in Europe and the Middle East to warn against keeping ties with Iran. In total, Burke, a top US Treasury Department official, visited over 50 countries across the Middle East and Europe, warning them to cease relationships with Iran. That’s not diplomacy in the neutral sense. It’s pressure, spread across more than 50 countries, with Washington telling governments where their relationships are allowed to point.
The Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani accused Netanyahu of sabotaging Gaza peace efforts for his own political gain. Al Thani also addressed Israel's "Qatargate" scandal, calling it "absurd" and saying that it would have been "the worst investment Qatar have ever done." The peace process, such as it is, keeps producing the same spectacle: leaders accusing each other of sabotage while the machinery of rule keeps grinding on.
Iran was reported responsible for antisemitic terror attacks in Liège and Antwerp earlier this year. The Belgian Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (CUTA) currently lists the threat level in Belgium as "very serious." The security state loves a threat level. It gives the bureaucracy a number, a warning, a reason to expand its own reach.
The Israeli Navy is considering a purchase of Boeing P-8 Poseidon aircraft for submarine warfare missions. Israel is examining a potential P-8 Poseidon acquisition as the Navy seeks to expand covert maritime operations and counter growing submarine threats. The Boeing P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft of the German forces was pictured during the Armed Forces Day at the Nordholz Naval Airbase in Nordholz, Germany, on June 06, 2026. More hardware, more covert operations, more money for the maritime arm of the same old monopoly on force.
Egyptian intelligence chief visited Israel days before Oct. 7 to issue a security warning, according to a report. The PMO rejected the allegations, saying the report "was denied at the time and is being recycled to manipulate the Israeli public." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate Director Abbas Kamel on June 30, 2021. The IDF destroys a terror tunnel in Gaza. The official line keeps moving between warning, denial, and destruction. The people underneath it don’t get much say.