Families across the Maghreb are having fewer children, a direct consequence of escalating economic pressures and the systematic underpayment of labor. In Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, fertility rates have plummeted by more than half since the 1970s. The rising cost of living makes larger families increasingly difficult for working couples to sustain.
Ahmed, a 21-year-old student, stated his preference for two children, citing the need to balance their needs with those of their parents. Bouchra Bekioua, a 21-year-old bride-to-be, echoed this sentiment, noting that families now view two children as more manageable. Achraf Boukhamera, 25, directly linked this trend to low average incomes, highlighting the economic precarity faced by young workers.
The Cost of Reproduction
Demographers confirm that the decline extends beyond mere financial strain. Later marriages and delayed childbearing contribute significantly to changing fertility patterns. Wider access to contraception also plays a role. However, the structural barriers remain clear: rising educational attainment among women, coupled with persistent difficulties entering the workforce, reshapes expectations around family life. These difficulties are not accidental; they are features of an economic system that prioritizes capital accumulation over the social reproduction of the working class.
The consequences of this demographic shift will reverberate far beyond individual households. Hassen Kassar, a professor of demography and social sciences, warns that Tunisia already faces a shrinking working-age population. Simultaneously, the proportion of older people is growing. This imbalance points to a future where capital will demand more migrant labor to fill the void left by a domestic workforce unable or unwilling to reproduce itself under current economic conditions.
Capital's Demographic Shift
This shift underscores how the economic system's relentless drive for surplus extraction impacts the most fundamental aspects of human life. When wages are suppressed and the cost of living spirals, the decision to have children becomes an economic calculation, not merely a personal one. The state, through its inaction on wage stagnation and its failure to control living expenses, effectively manages the conditions that force workers to limit family size. This ensures a more flexible, and potentially cheaper, labor pool in the long run, even if it necessitates future reliance on migrant workers to sustain production. The system adapts, always seeking new sources of labor to maintain its profit margins, while the burden of reproduction falls squarely on the shoulders of the working class.