Oil prices climbed and gold retreated on June 29 as markets absorbed a weekend of U.S.-Iran military strikes followed by a renewed halt in hostilities, with Brent crude standing at $72.31 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures at $69.82. The brief escalation put talks to end the war on hold before both sides agreed to stand down, allowing vessels to move freely once more.
The U.S. struck Iranian military targets over the weekend after Iran reportedly attacked a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker on Saturday. Iran's neighbors Kuwait and Bahrain also reported incoming missiles and drones overnight. President Donald Trump renewed his warnings to Iran on Sunday, saying there could come a point when the U.S. would be "no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started." He added, "If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!"
A U.S. official told CNBC that "technical talks are slated to continue on all areas of the MOU," adding that "both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely." Asia markets started the week mixed while U.S. market futures climbed. CNBC reported markets largely appeared unfazed by the Middle East flare-up, with investors turning their attention to a tech recovery rally.
Dollar Strength Pressures Gold
Gold fell about 0.4% to around $4,072 per ounce, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar. Reuters said gold was on track for a second-quarter decline of about 13%, which would be the largest quarterly drop since 2013. Global equities were adrift as investors awaited further developments. The dollar's strength reflected confidence in American economic fundamentals even as geopolitical tensions flared.
Investors were also focused on whether last week's tech sell-off had run its course. Chip stocks came under pressure last Friday after a New York Times report said OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO until next year, partly because of SpaceX's weak performance after its debut and broader volatility in AI-related shares.
Tech Sector Under Pressure
Despite that weakness, SpaceX is poised to become one of the fastest additions ever to the Nasdaq-100 index, a move that could see buying by index-tracking funds and other product sponsors after the market closes on July 6. The memory crunch was becoming more painful for smaller firms. Apple and Microsoft have been able to pass higher costs on to consumers, but smaller firms have far less pricing power.
GoPro warned this month that it might go out of business after memory costs shot up between 80% and 115% at the end of the first quarter. Shares of speaker maker Sonos were down 23% this year as memory prices pressured margins. The divergence between tech giants with pricing power and smaller competitors illustrated how supply chain disruptions hit companies differently based on their market position and customer loyalty.
The conflict quickly returned to familiar territory after the U.S. and Iran agreed to halt hostilities once more, suggesting markets have grown accustomed to periodic Middle East tensions that escalate and then de-escalate without sustained disruption to global commerce.
Why This Matters:
The swift resolution of U.S.-Iran tensions demonstrated the value of credible military deterrence backed by clear warnings from American leadership. Trump's direct language preceded Iran's decision to stand down, allowing commercial shipping to resume and preventing sustained oil price spikes that would've hit American consumers and businesses. The stronger dollar and gold's quarterly decline reflect confidence in U.S. economic fundamentals even amid geopolitical volatility. Meanwhile, the tech sector's challenges reveal how supply chain pressures expose companies without pricing power or strong market positions. Smaller firms like GoPro and Sonos can't pass costs along like Apple and Microsoft can, highlighting how market concentration and competitive advantages matter when external shocks hit. The memory cost surge shows how government can't shield every business from global supply dynamics.