Several Australian banks and global investment banks are now forecasting the Reserve Bank will hike the cash rate again later this month, and the people who’ll wear it are the ones already getting squeezed. National Australia Bank, Deutsche Bank and UBS are all expecting the RBA to hike interest rates on September 29, which would take the cash rate to 4.6%. The machinery at the top keeps moving. The bill lands below.
Who Pays for the Rate Machine
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said, "I’m not going to give free advice to the independent Reserve Bank," and added, "I think it’s self-evident that the interest rate rises in the system already are putting additional pressure on people." That’s the plain part. The pressure isn’t abstract. It’s already in the system, already biting, already being passed down to ordinary people while the central bank keeps its distance behind the word "independent."
Chalmers also said, "I don't think that's an especially controversial view to hold," and, "You can see in the national accounts, even, released in the last couple of days, the impact of those rate rises which are already in the system and will play out in the months ahead." He added, "But beyond that, I’m not going to give free advice to the independent Reserve Bank," and, "There are good reasons why Treasurers of either political persuasion don't do that." The language is polished. The structure is not. A central bank, insulated by design, sets the terms. Everyone else absorbs the shock.
The Australian dollar climbed back above 72 US cents, reaching a four-month high of 72.15 US cents earlier in the day before easing back to 72.10 US cents at 3:20pm AEST. At around 4:45pm AEST, the market snapshot showed the Australian dollar up 0.07% at 72.04 US cents. The currency moved. The people paying rent, bills and loans don’t get to trade in neat percentages.
Markets Cheer, Workers Absorb
In the ABC business live blog, the ASX 200 closed lower on Friday, dropping 14 points, or 0.16%, to 9,005. The worst-performing stocks in the index were Nine Entertainment, down 8.25%, and Ampol, losing 5.36%. The index has lost 0.95% over the last five days and sits 3.13% below its 52-week high. At around 3:10pm AEST, the ASX 200 was down 0.14% to 9,007 points, while spot gold, Brent crude and bitcoin all moved around in the same restless churn that passes for stability in these markets.
Wall Street was higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.2%, the S&P 500 up 1.06% and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.4%. Europe was higher too, with the FTSE up 0.7%, the DAX up 0.6% and the Stoxx 600 up 0.5%. The numbers keep their own rhythm. The hierarchy underneath them doesn’t change.
What the Regulators Admit, and What They Miss
ASIC acknowledged private lending is "possibly a gap" in its remit following the $3.4 billion collapse of major NSW developer Bathla. That’s a tidy phrase for a hole in oversight big enough to swallow billions. ASIC commissioner Simone Constant said private lending was higher risk and therefore promised higher reward, but came with fewer regulatory protections. She said, "Growth of private markets is terrific," and, "Done well, it is a good thing, that Australia is a nation of investors."
Constant also said, "Things we get concerned about, if you’re investing in private credit, this is lending outside the APRA regulated system." Surveillance from last year identified 28 private funds where ASIC found "egregious" issues such as conflict of interest or flawed valuations. ASIC chair Sarah Court said it had been engaging with Bathla and its administrators for the past month and was examining whether any misconduct took place. The language of supervision arrives after the damage, as usual. The market gets to run ahead. The regulator gets to inspect the wreckage.
The corporate regulator had also been told by the big four accounting firms — KPMG, PwC, EY and Deloitte — that there had been 551 complaints about alleged audit misconduct. ASIC's executive director of enforcement and compliance, Chris Savundra, told a parliamentary hearing in Sydney that ASIC was looking at whistleblower complaints at the big four accounting firms dating from July 1, 2023, and that, so far, 551 complaints had been made. The firms sit at the center of the system. The complaints pile up around them.
The Australian Labour Account for the June quarter 2026 showed total jobs up 0.6% to 16.7 million, filled jobs up 0.7% to 16.3 million, secondary jobs up 4.6% to 1.2 million, the proportion of vacant jobs down to 2.0%, multiple job-holders up 6.6% to 1.0 million and hours worked up 0.4% to 6.1 billion hours. Chalmers said, "New figures out today show that about six out of every seven jobs created on our watch were in the private sector," and, "Almost every job created in the last quarter was in the private sector." He added, "More than four in every five jobs created last quarter was in the market sector." The market sector gets the credit. The workers get the hours.