Momentum is building behind a third term for conservative European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, and the whole thing is being stitched together the usual way: behind closed doors, among the same centrist forces that like to call it democracy when the result is already arranged. Metsola, the Maltese politician from the European People's Party, is serving her second term and is the clear frontrunner, although she has not said whether she will seek another mandate.
Backroom Rule, Secret Ballot
The European Parliament's president is elected every two and a half years by MEPs through a secret ballot, but the decision is usually settled beforehand through backroom deals among the political groups. The main European political families — conservatives, socialists and the liberal Renew Europe — usually settle on a candidate beforehand to avoid a showdown in the chamber. That arrangement is part of a broader agreement on the EU's top jobs, which include the presidents of the Commission and the Council, as well as the high representative for foreign affairs.
The latest deal, struck in June 2024, saw conservative Ursula von der Leyen confirmed as Commission president, socialist António Costa appointed president of the European Council, and liberal Kaja Kallas as high representative for foreign affairs. In Parliament, the deal usually splits the legislature into two halves, as has been the case over the past four terms, with EPP and S&D members alternating as president. The choreography is neat. The public gets procedure; the parties get power.
The centre-left Socialists and Democrats group says it should be entitled to the presidency in the second half of the legislature, but it lacks the political clout to push through its own candidate. A Socialist MEP told Euronews, “We should not accept Metsola, and we will not do it. But it seems to me quite obvious it will be her again,” speaking on condition of anonymity and summarising the mood among fellow lawmakers. That is the sound of a group that knows the script and still has to pretend it might change.
Several MEPs confirmed the agreement, but its wording regarding Parliament's presidency deliberately leaves some room for ambiguity. One MEP from another group said, “It says that the groups aim for a balanced distribution of the Parliament's top positions,” which includes vice-presidents and committee chairs. Balanced distribution, in Brussels language, means room for manoeuvre for the biggest machine in the room.
The EPP Has the Numbers
The election rules play in the EPP's favour. In the secret ballot, the president could be elected by an absolute majority of votes cast in any of the first three rounds. If no candidate secures that majority, the election goes to a final run-off between the two candidates who received the most votes in the previous round. If the EPP insists on another mandate for Metsola, there is little chance of stopping it.
With that prospect looking more likely, the S&D faces a lose-lose dilemma: challenge Metsola from a position of weakness or accept her re-election. The heads of Socialist parties’ delegations discussed their strategy in one of the last meetings before the summer break. According to people in the room, some pushed to strike a backroom deal with the EPP, backing Metsola in exchange for concessions such as additional committee chairs or a stronger commitment to draft legislation exclusively with the centrist majority established at the beginning of the mandate.
Others were more inclined to pick a candidate and mount a challenge in the ballot, with German MEP Katarina Barley’s name floated in the discussions. Despite having virtually no chance of success, this would force the EPP to breach the informal deal explicitly. Even the opposition, such as it is, gets reduced to bargaining over chairs and drafting rights while the same bloc keeps the upper hand.
Centre-right conservatives have the upper hand in the vote, but they prefer to maintain the appearance of unity and present Metsola as the product of a deal among pro-European forces rather than get the president elected with the votes of far-right parties. Another MEP from a different political group told Euronews, “Socialists should have moved earlier to call the EPP's bluff by tabling a candidate before the summer. Now, if the EPP has the first move and it picks Metsola, they are cornered.”
A Brussels Career Built on Power
Metsola remains silent, and her cabinet says any candidate must first be nominated by their political group. She was re-elected with a broad cross-party majority in July 2024 and could become the first person in history to serve three terms as president. That would be a tidy little milestone for a system that likes to dress continuity up as legitimacy.
A senior lawmaker not belonging to the EPP said, “She knows how to keep colleagues on her side,” while another MEP said, “I do not see any better choice. She has also built a public image that is very appreciated,” referring to Metsola's profile on the international stage. The praise is revealing. In Brussels, being “very appreciated” often means knowing how to keep the machinery moving without making too much noise about who it serves.
Metsola has sought to project a strong international profile, particularly on Ukraine and Iran. She was the first European leader to travel to Kyiv in April 2022, less than two months after Russia's full-scale invasion, and the visit paved the way for subsequent visits by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and other European leaders. The parade of leaders followed the same logic: the institutions move together when the moment suits them.
She has also been at the forefront of the European Parliament's hard line towards Iranian leadership, supporting dissidents' protests, calling for regime change and banning all Iranian diplomats from the Parliament. She also pushed for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to be placed on the EU terrorist list, which happened a few weeks after her call. The Parliament’s hard line travels easily when it aligns with the wider Brussels apparatus.
At that time, her activism sparked speculation among MEPs about possible future ambitions for the European Commission’s presidency. But with the way cleared for her to remain at the helm of the Parliament, moving to another Brussels institution’s building is unlikely to happen anytime soon. The buildings change. The system doesn’t.