The European Parliament's centre-left faces a political dead end as conservative President Roberta Metsola moves toward a historic third term, exposing the weakness of an informal power-sharing deal that has governed the institution for two decades.
Metsola, the Maltese MEP from the European People's Party, hasn't announced whether she'll seek re-election when her term ends in early 2027. But momentum is building behind her candidacy, and the Socialists and Democrats group — which believes it's entitled to the presidency in the second half of the legislature — lacks the votes to stop her. "We should not accept Metsola, and we will not do it," a Socialist MEP told Euronews on condition of anonymity. "But it seems to me quite obvious it will be her again."
The Informal Deal Under Strain
The Parliament's president is elected every two and a half years through a secret ballot, but the decision is usually settled beforehand through backroom deals among the main political families — conservatives, socialists, and the liberal Renew Europe. This arrangement is part of a broader agreement on the EU's top jobs, which include the presidents of the Commission and the Council as well as the high representative for foreign affairs.
The latest deal, struck in June 2024, saw conservative Ursula von der Leyen confirmed as Commission president, socialist António Costa appointed president of the European Council, and liberal Kaja Kallas as high representative for foreign affairs. In Parliament, the deal usually splits the legislature into two halves, with EPP and S&D members alternating as president — as has been the case over the past four terms.
But the agreement's wording regarding Parliament's presidency deliberately leaves room for ambiguity. One MEP from another group said it "says that the groups aim for a balanced distribution of the Parliament's top positions," which include vice-presidents and committee chairs. That vagueness gives Metsola's EPP — by far the largest political force in Parliament — room to manoeuvre.
Election Rules Favour the EPP
The voting system plays to conservative strength. In the secret ballot, the president can be elected by an absolute majority of votes cast in any of the first three rounds. If no candidate secures that majority, the election goes to a final run-off between the two candidates who received the most votes. If the EPP insists on another mandate for Metsola, there's little the centre-left can do to stop it.
Facing this reality, the S&D confronts a lose-lose dilemma: challenge Metsola from a position of weakness or accept her re-election. According to people in the room, heads of Socialist parties' delegations discussed their strategy in one of the last meetings before the summer break. Some pushed to strike a backroom deal with the EPP, backing Metsola in exchange for concessions such as additional committee chairs or a stronger commitment to draft legislation exclusively with the centrist majority established at the beginning of the mandate.
Others were more inclined to pick a candidate and mount a challenge in the ballot, with German MEP Katarina Barley's name floated in the discussions. Despite having virtually no chance of success, this would force the EPP to breach the informal deal explicitly.
Metsola's International Profile
Centre-right conservatives have the upper hand in the vote, but they'd prefer to maintain the appearance of unity and present Metsola as the product of a deal among pro-European forces rather than get the president elected with the votes of far-right parties. Another MEP from a different political group told Euronews, "Socialists should have moved earlier to call the EPP's bluff by tabling a candidate before the summer. Now, if the EPP has the first move and it picks Metsola, they're cornered."
Metsola remains silent, and her cabinet says any candidate must first be nominated by their political group. She was re-elected with a broad cross-party majority in July 2024 and could become the first person in history to serve three terms as president.
A senior lawmaker not belonging to the EPP said, "She knows how to keep colleagues on her side," while another MEP said, "I do not see any better choice. She has also built a public image that is very appreciated," referring to Metsola's profile on the international stage.
Metsola has sought to project a strong international profile, particularly on Ukraine and Iran. She was the first European leader to travel to Kyiv in April 2022, less than two months after Russia's full-scale invasion, and the visit paved the way for subsequent visits by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and other European leaders.
She's also been at the forefront of the European Parliament's hard line towards Iranian leadership, supporting dissidents' protests, calling for regime change and banning all Iranian diplomats from the Parliament. She also pushed for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to be placed on the EU terrorist list, which happened a few weeks after her call.
At that time, her activism sparked speculation among MEPs about possible future ambitions for the European Commission's presidency. But with the way cleared for her to remain at the helm of the Parliament, moving to another Brussels institution's building is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Why This Matters:
The struggle over Parliament's presidency exposes a deeper problem for Europe's centre-left: it can no longer count on informal power-sharing arrangements to guarantee influence. The EPP's dominance reflects a shift in European politics — conservatives hold the largest bloc, and they're increasingly willing to use that strength to consolidate power. For the S&D, the choice is stark: accept a weakened position within the centrist coalition or risk isolation. The outcome will shape not just who presides over debates but which legislative priorities move forward — from climate ambition to social protections to migration reform. If the centre-left cannot secure a credible role in Parliament's leadership, it will struggle to shape the EU's direction at a time when democratic renewal and social investment are desperately needed. The informal deals that once balanced power among pro-European forces are fraying, and the Socialists have yet to find a strategy that works in this new reality.