Maltese conservative Roberta Metsola is poised to secure an unprecedented third term as European Parliament president, exposing the centre-left's weakness in Brussels and potentially breaking an informal power-sharing deal that's governed EU top jobs for years. The European People's Party politician hasn't announced her candidacy yet, but momentum behind her re-election is forcing the Socialists and Democrats into a corner they can't escape.
The S&D insists it should hold the presidency in the second half of the legislature under the traditional arrangement. But it doesn't have the votes. "We should not accept Metsola, and we will not do it," a Socialist MEP told Euronews on condition of anonymity. "But it seems to me quite obvious it will be her again." That's the reality facing the centre-left: they can't stop her, and they know it.
The Numbers Don't Lie
The EPP is by far the largest political force in Parliament. Under election rules, the president can be elected by an absolute majority of votes cast in any of the first three rounds. If no candidate secures that majority, the election goes to a final run-off between the two top vote-getters. The EPP can find allies to its left or right to impose its preferred candidate. If conservatives insist on Metsola, there's little chance of stopping it.
The presidency is elected every two and a half years by MEPs through secret ballot, but the decision is usually settled beforehand through backroom deals among the main political families—conservatives, socialists, and the liberal Renew Europe. This is part of a broader agreement on EU top jobs, which include the presidents of the Commission and the Council, as well as the high representative for foreign affairs.
The latest deal, struck in June 2024, saw conservative Ursula von der Leyen confirmed as Commission president, socialist António Costa appointed president of the European Council, and liberal Kaja Kallas as high representative for foreign affairs. In Parliament, the deal usually splits the legislature into two halves—as has been the case over the past four terms—with EPP and S&D members alternating as president.
Room for Manoeuvre
Several MEPs confirmed the agreement exists, but its wording regarding Parliament's presidency deliberately leaves room for ambiguity. One MEP from another group said the deal "says that the groups aim for a balanced distribution of the Parliament's top positions," which include vice-presidents and committee chairs. That's enough wiggle room for the EPP to drive a truck through.
The S&D faces a lose-lose dilemma: challenge Metsola from a position of weakness or accept her re-election. Heads of Socialist parties' delegations discussed their strategy in one of the last meetings before the summer break. According to people in the room, some pushed to strike a backroom deal with the EPP, backing Metsola in exchange for concessions such as additional committee chairs or a stronger commitment to draft legislation exclusively with the centrist majority established at the beginning of the mandate.
Others were more inclined to pick a candidate and mount a challenge in the ballot, with German MEP Katarina Barley's name floated in the discussions. Despite having virtually no chance of success, this would force the EPP to breach the informal deal explicitly.
Tactical Advantage
Centre-right conservatives have the upper hand in the vote, but they'd prefer to maintain the appearance of unity and present Metsola as the product of a deal among pro-European forces rather than get the president elected with the votes of far-right parties. Another MEP from a different political group told Euronews, "Socialists should have moved earlier to call the EPP's bluff by tabling a candidate before the summer. Now, if the EPP has the first move and it picks Metsola, they're cornered."
Metsola remains silent. Her cabinet says any candidate must first be nominated by their political group. She was re-elected with a broad cross-party majority in July 2024 and could become the first person in history to serve three terms as president.
A senior lawmaker not belonging to the EPP said, "She knows how to keep colleagues on her side." Another MEP said, "I do not see any better choice. She has also built a public image that's very appreciated," referring to Metsola's profile on the international stage.
International Profile
Metsola has sought to project a strong international profile, particularly on Ukraine and Iran. She was the first European leader to travel to Kyiv in April 2022, less than two months after Russia's full-scale invasion four years ago. The visit paved the way for subsequent visits by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and other European leaders.
She's also been at the forefront of the European Parliament's hard line towards Iranian leadership, supporting dissidents' protests, calling for regime change, and banning all Iranian diplomats from the Parliament. She pushed for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to be placed on the EU terrorist list, which happened a few weeks after her call.
At that time, her activism sparked speculation among MEPs about possible future ambitions for the European Commission's presidency. But with the way cleared for her to remain at the helm of the Parliament, moving to another Brussels institution's building is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Why This Matters:
The Metsola re-election drama reveals the shifting balance of power in Brussels. The EPP's dominance isn't just about numbers—it's about knowing when to use them. The Socialists' inability to mount a credible challenge exposes their weakness at a time when Europe faces mounting security and economic pressures. Informal power-sharing deals only work when all sides have leverage. The S&D doesn't. This matters because Parliament's presidency isn't ceremonial—it sets the legislative agenda, controls debate, and represents the institution internationally. If Metsola secures a third term, she'll have unprecedented influence over European lawmaking at a critical moment. The question isn't whether she'll win. It's what concessions, if any, the EPP will offer to preserve the fiction of centrist unity.