Mexico’s auto exports fell 12% in September from a year earlier, and vehicle output dropped 15% as U.S. tariffs weighed on the country’s leading industrial sector. Domestic sales rose 8%, cushioning the decline. Figures released Wednesday by statistics office INEGI mark the steepest export drop since December 2025 and the biggest slump so far this year.
Tariffs and Supply Chains
The United States remains the largest market for Mexican vehicles, and analysts blamed U.S. tariff policies for September’s export decline. Mexican cars still face tariffs of 25. Mexican officials estimate that meeting rules requiring parts sourced from North America cuts the tariff burden to between 10% and 12%.
Government officials are reviewing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade pact, but that review hasn't removed tariffs on Mexican cars. The two economies grew closely intertwined through successive free trade agreements. Sudden policy shifts and tariffs under the Trump administration have shaken business owners’ trust in long-established supply chains.
“This has generated greater uncertainty for carmakers and it has affected production and export decisions,” said Janneth Quiroz, economic analysis director at Monex. She warned that Mexico’s reliance on the U.S. market poses the sector’s biggest risk. “The September data is a warning sign rather than a crisis signal,” she said. “If this trend continues into 2027, then we could indeed be talking about a more structural problem for Mexican manufacturing.”
Production Shifts
General Motors announced last year a $4 billion push to shift some production from Mexico to the United States as it navigates tariff policies. The Chevrolet-maker, Ford and Nissan recorded significant export declines in September. The figures show companies adjusting production and export decisions amid shifting trade conditions; the article reports no profit figures for those automakers.
Mercedes-Benz produced and exported no cars last month after it shut a joint plant with Nissan last May. It marked the first time the company had exported no cars since it began shipping abroad, according to the article. The report gives no figures for workers affected by the plant closure or production declines.
South Korea’s Kia, Germany’s BMW and Japan’s Mazda picked up some of the slack. Mazda more than doubled its monthly exports. Those changes came as Mexico continued supplying a significant share of the U.S. vehicle market, even as demand there contracted.
Markets and Investment
Mexico remains the top foreign provider of cars in the United States, the country’s main auto chamber, AMIA, said at a press conference Wednesday. Mexican vehicles accounted for 16% of light vehicles in a U.S. market that has shrunk 2% so far this year. AMIA data showed exports to the United States fell 5%, while Canada, Mexico’s next-biggest market, increased purchases by just over 9%.
Alejandra Vargas, an analyst at Ve Por Mas, or Bx+, said a sustained slowdown could affect automakers’ investment decisions, Mexico’s manufacturing activity and overall economic growth. “The evolution of the trade relationship between Mexico and the United States will continue to be the main factor determining the industry’s course in the coming months,” she said. The trade pact review is under way; the tariff burden and the sector’s dependence on U.S. buyers remain central to the outlook described by analysts and industry officials.