Mexico City is sinking by nearly 10 inches, about 25 centimeters, a year, according to new satellite imagery released this week by NASA, threatening critical infrastructure serving 22 million people and raising urgent questions about the long-term viability of one of the world's largest urban centers. The subsidence damages the subway system, drainage networks, water infrastructure, housing and streets across the metropolitan area.
The Mexican capital and surrounding cities cover 3,000 square miles, about 7,800 square kilometers. Extensive groundwater pumping and urban development have dramatically shrunk the aquifer beneath the city, which was built atop an ancient lake bed where many downtown streets were once canals. Mexico City has been sinking for more than a century, leaving many monuments and older buildings, including the Metropolitan Cathedral, where construction began in 1573, visibly tilted to the side.
Infrastructure Under Threat
Enrique Cabral, a researcher studying geophysics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, said, "It damages part of the critical infrastructure of Mexico City, such as the subway, the drainage system, the water, the potable water system, housing and streets." He added, "It's a very big problem."
In some parts, the subsidence is happening at an average rate of 0.78 inches, 2 centimeters, a month, including at the main airport and the monument commonly known as the Angel of Independence. Overall, that means a yearly subsidence rate of about 9.5 inches, 24 centimeters, and over the course of less than a century the drop has been more than 39 feet, 12 meters, according to Cabral. He said, "We have one of the fastest velocities of land subsidence in the whole world."
The contracting aquifer has also contributed to a chronic water crisis that is only expected to worsen, compounding the infrastructure challenges facing municipal authorities and residents.
Advanced Monitoring Technology
The NASA estimates are based on measurements taken between October 2025 and January 2026 by the NISAR satellite, a joint initiative between NASA and the Indian Space Research Organization. NISAR scientist Paul Rosen said the project is "telling us something about what's actually happening below the surface." He said, "It's basically documentation of all of these changes within a city," and added, "You can see the full magnitude of the problem."
Rosen said the team hopes to zoom in on specific areas and someday get measurements on a building-by-building basis. Researchers hope to apply the technology around the world to track natural disasters, changes in fault lines, the effects of climate change in regions like Antarctica and more. Rosen said it could be used to bolster alert systems and let scientists alert governments to the need for evacuations in cases of volcano eruptions, for example.
Government Response and Research Funding
Cabral said the technology is a big advance in studying the subsidence issue and mitigating its worst effects. He said the government has for decades largely ignored the problem other than stabilizing foundations under monuments like the cathedral, but following recent flare-ups of the water crisis officials have begun to fund more research.
Imagery from the NISAR satellite and the data that comes with it will be key for scientists and officials as they plan how to address the problem. Cabral said, "To do long-term mitigation of the situation, the first step is to just understand."
Why This Matters:
The rapid subsidence of Mexico City represents a mounting threat to billions of dollars in infrastructure investment and the daily functioning of essential services for 22 million residents. The damage to subway systems, water networks, and drainage infrastructure imposes growing maintenance costs on municipal budgets while potentially requiring massive capital expenditures to relocate or rebuild critical facilities. The acknowledgment that government has largely ignored the problem for decades highlights the fiscal consequences of deferred infrastructure maintenance and inadequate long-term planning. The chronic water crisis, exacerbated by aquifer depletion, underscores the limits of unsustainable resource extraction and the need for market-based water pricing mechanisms that encourage conservation. For property owners and businesses, the subsidence creates uncertainty about long-term asset values and operational viability in affected areas, while the belated government funding of research suggests taxpayers will ultimately bear the costs of addressing a problem that decades of policy neglect allowed to worsen.