Imported machinery and equipment rose 9.9% year on year in July, while Mexican-made machinery fell 3.1%, according to figures from Mexico’s autonomous statistics agency, INEGI. Gross fixed investment increased 6.6% from a year earlier in unadjusted terms. The equipment figures, though, show imports and domestic production moving in opposite directions.
What the July figures show
INEGI reported on Monday, 5 October, that gross fixed investment rose 6.0% year on year after seasonal and calendar adjustment, and increased 1.4% from June. The indicator measures real spending on buildings, machinery and equipment used in production for more than a year.
Machinery and equipment led the monthly increase. They rose 4.5% from June. Construction spending went the other way, falling 1.5% over the month. Non-residential construction declined 3.9% from June.
Year-on-year construction figures were stronger. Adjusted construction spending rose 6.9%, with residential building up 9.2% and non-residential building up 4.0%. Machinery and equipment overall rose 4.9% from a year earlier on an adjusted basis.
Imports rise as Mexican-made machinery falls
The gap between imported and Mexican-made machinery was pronounced. Adjusted imports of machinery and equipment increased 9.9% year on year, while Mexican-made machinery fell 3.1%. In raw terms, imported machinery, equipment and other goods jumped 14.9%.
The bulletin didn't identify the countries supplying the imported machinery, the industries buying it, or why non-residential construction fell in July. It didn't provide details about the uses of the imported equipment, either. So the reported figures show the direction and scale of the changes, but not their causes or the sectors where they occurred.
Private and public investment both rose in unadjusted terms compared with July 2025. Private investment increased 6.7%, while public investment rose 6.2%.
Year-to-date growth remains limited
From January to July, gross fixed investment was up 1.7% from the same period in 2025, in unadjusted terms. Private investment increased 0.4% across that period. Public investment rose 10.2%, and public spending on construction was up 12.9%.
Mexican-made machinery was down 8.0% year to date. That figure sits alongside the reported increase in imported machinery, though INEGI's bulletin didn't say that one trend caused the other. The July results followed what the report described as a weak year-to-date performance.
INEGI said the figures are preliminary and may change after revision. The agency scheduled its August figures for release on 5 November 2026.
The report also cited Polymarket odds on Banxico holding rates at its November meeting. At 3:05 a.m. ET on 6 October, the probability was 95%, up about 20 points in a week, with roughly US$25,600 traded in that contract. A 25-basis-point cut was priced at about 2%, and a 25-basis-point hike at about 4%. Total volume across the November event was about US$36,700. The report described these figures as real-money bets, not polls or forecasts by Banxico.