Sportsbooks Make Injured Miami a Major Underdog

Miami’s injury report helped make the No. 1 team a more than touchdown underdog at No. 4 Notre Dame, as sportsbooks set the price on Saturday night’s game in South Bend. Miami is 8-0 and ranked No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings; Notre Dame is 7-1 and ranked No. 11 in the CFP. One player’s absence has become a central number in a market that turns athletic performance into betting lines.

The Price of One Injury

The Associated Press report said the line followed an injury to Miami star wide receiver Malachi Toney. The game could mark the first time in 12 years an AP No. 1 team was such a large underdog in a regular-season game, according to the report. Miami is also playing on the road, a detail shared by other teams in the comparisons cited.

DraftKings Director of Sports Operations Johnny Avello said Friday that Toney accounts for a substantial share of Miami’s offense. “Toney’s a big part of the offense. You want to look at the offensive production and for that team, he’s half of it. He’s a big deal,” Avello said. He added that teams sometimes rally around an injury, while “sometimes, the line gets a little more carried away than it should.”

Avello said he wouldn’t be surprised if the line fell below seven points by kickoff Saturday night. “I don’t think the general public is going to just say, ‘OK, this is a gimme for Notre Dame,’” he said. The line isn’t a verdict on the field; it’s a number sportsbooks and bettors will keep judging before the game begins.

Bettors Push Back on the Number

Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, also thought the line could fall below seven by game time. As of Friday afternoon, Caesars had 58% of bettors taking the Notre Dame moneyline, while 73% were taking Miami with the spread. “I think it’s a little high on Notre Dame right now,” Feazel said.

Those percentages show two different ways bettors are reading the matchup: most of the reported moneyline bettors chose Notre Dame, while most bettors taking the spread chose Miami. The source gives no dollar totals, and those percentages don’t settle what will happen on the field. They do show how the injury, the odds and the public’s wagers are being weighed against one another.

Toney’s injury also changed the Heisman Trophy betting market. He had been one of the favorites but was expected to be out until December and had been removed from most Heisman boards. Caesars listed Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at +175, a slight underdog to Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith at +160.

“If Mensah is able to get this win, in really the best game Miami has on its schedule, it’s going to be really hard to kind of take that Heisman Trophy away from him,” Feazel said. The award market, like the game line, now turns on the result assigned to one Saturday-night performance.

The Long Odds History

The most recent comparable case was believed to be in 2014, when Mississippi State, featuring quarterback Dak Prescott, was a seven-point underdog to then-No. 4 Alabama, which featured running back Derrick Henry. Mississippi State lost 25-20. Clemson was ranked No. 1 but was a 6.5-point underdog to Alabama in the national championship game on Jan. 11, 2016.

No. 1 Ohio State was a 2.5-point underdog when it lost to Texas earlier this season, and Georgia, initially favored, became a 2.5-point underdog when it beat Alabama. Both games were on the road, as Miami’s game is. The report said Miami could become the biggest top-ranked underdog in nearly 14 years, since No. 1 Notre Dame was a 10-point underdog to Alabama in the national championship game on Jan. 7, 2013. Alabama won 42-14.

The AP report also included photographs of Miami receiver Malachi Toney against Pittsburgh and North Carolina, and Notre Dame running back Nolan James Jr. scoring against Navy. They document the players whose performances—and, in Toney’s case, injury—now sit inside the betting conversation. The market has its numbers. The game still has to be played.