After 16 months without representation in the state Senate, voters in a competitive central Michigan district will decide Tuesday whether to preserve Democratic control of the chamber or create a legislative deadlock that could paralyze the body's ability to pass laws addressing community needs.
Michigan Democrats won a state government trifecta 4 years ago—control of the governorship and both chambers of the state Legislature—but lost the state House 2 years ago and now cling to a 19-18 state Senate majority. A Republican victory on Tuesday would deadlock the body at 19 senators each, potentially blocking legislation even with Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II's tie-breaking vote, since Republicans could withhold votes and prevent Democrats from reaching the 20-vote threshold required to pass legislation.
The Candidates and District
The nominees for the seat are Democrat Chedrick Greene, Republican Jason Tunney and Libertarian Ali Sledz. Greene, a firefighter and former state Senate aide to Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet, received 60% of the vote in the Feb. 3 Democratic special primary against five others. Tunney, an attorney and former executive at his family's roofing company, won the GOP special primary with 51% of the vote against three opponents. Sledz, a graduate student and Army spouse, received the Libertarian Party nomination at a local party convention less than 1 year ago.
State Senate District 35 includes parts of Bay, Midland and Saginaw counties and borders Lake Huron. Although Republican Donald Trump carried all three counties in the 2024 presidential race, the portions of the counties that fall within District 35 are more competitive. McDonald Rivet won the seat 4 years ago with 53% of the vote. Democrat Kamala Harris barely edged Trump in the district in 2024, 49.7% to 48.9%, on the strength of her 17-percentage-point lead in the Saginaw portion of the district. Trump posted smaller leads in the parts of the district in Bay and Midland counties. District voters also preferred Democrat Joe Biden over Trump in the 2020 presidential race by a slightly larger margin.
Path to Special Election
McDonald Rivet vacated the seat 1 year ago following her election to Congress. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced less than 1 year ago that the special primary would be held Feb. 3 and the special election on Tuesday. The winner will complete the remaining eight months of the term. Both Greene and Tunney have filed to run in the Aug. 4 primaries for nomination to a full term.
Nearly 46,000 voters cast ballots in the Feb. 3 special primary in District 35. There were slightly more than 17,000 votes from Saginaw County, just shy of 17,000 from Bay County and about 11,000 from Midland County. In the regularly scheduled general election 4 years ago, about 116,000 ballots were cast in the district, with the share of votes from each county about the same as in the special primary.
Voting Patterns and Procedures
In the Feb. 3 special primaries, early and absentee votes made up about 43% of the total Democratic primary vote and about 29% of the Republican vote. By comparison, about 60% of the vote in the 2024 presidential general election was cast before Election Day. As of Friday, about 32,000 ballots had already been cast in the special election.
Polls in Senate District 35 close at 8 p.m. ET. The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare a winner in the state Senate special election. Three candidates are on the ballot. Write-in votes are not permitted for this election, since no write-in candidates filed the necessary paperwork with election officials. Any voter registered in state Senate District 35 may participate in the special election. Voters may register on Election Day.
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it's determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. Michigan's mandatory recount law does not apply to state Senate races. Instead, candidates may request and pay for a recount, with the payment refunded if the recount changes the outcome.
Bay, Midland and Saginaw counties tend to release a relatively small amount of the vote in their first vote update, both in terms of advance votes and in-person Election Day votes. Bay County tends to release results from pre-Election Day voting at the end of the vote tabulation process, while Midland and Saginaw counties release them throughout the night along with results from in-person Election Day voting.
The last time this seat was up, 4 years ago, the AP first reported results in state Senate District 35 at 8:53 p.m. ET, or 53 minutes after polls closed. About 89% of the vote had been tallied by 2:23 a.m. ET, with the last vote update of the night at 5:33 a.m. ET, with about 99.9% of total votes counted.
Why This Matters:
The outcome of this special election will determine whether Michigan's state Senate can continue to function as a legislative body capable of passing laws or becomes deadlocked in partisan gridlock. While the Democratic lieutenant governor can break ties, a 19-19 split would allow Republicans to block legislation by withholding votes and preventing the 20-vote threshold required to pass bills. For residents of Bay, Midland and Saginaw counties who have gone 16 months without state Senate representation, the result will affect their ability to have their needs addressed through state legislation. The winner will serve only eight months before voters return to the polls in August for primary elections and again in November for the general election, creating an extended period of electoral uncertainty. With 91 days until the Aug. 4 state primary and 182 days until the 2026 midterm elections, the special election winner's brief tenure highlights the challenges communities face when seats remain vacant for extended periods.