Voters in a central Michigan district will decide on Tuesday whether the state's ruling political class maintains its unilateral legislative control, or if a Republican victory will deadlock the state Senate, effectively blocking the current regime's agenda. The special election to fill a seat left vacant for 16 months by former Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet presents a critical juncture for the native working class of the district, who have been without direct representation in the chamber.
The election comes as Michigan Democrats, who secured a state government trifecta 4 years ago in 2022, have seen their power erode, losing the state House 2 years ago in 2024. They currently cling to a narrow 19-18 state Senate majority. A Republican win in this special election would result in a 19-19 deadlock, fundamentally altering the balance of power in Lansing.
While the state constitution permits Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II to break ties, a Republican deadlock would empower the opposition to block measures by withholding votes, thereby preventing the 20-vote threshold required to pass legislation. This mechanism would curtail the ability of the ruling party to push through its agenda without broader consensus, restoring a measure of checks on legislative power.
The Battle for Local Representation
State Senate District 35, encompassing parts of Bay, Midland, and Saginaw counties and bordering Lake Huron, represents a microcosm of the broader struggle for the state's direction. Despite Republican Donald Trump carrying all three counties in the 2024 presidential race, the specific portions of these counties within District 35 exhibit a more competitive electoral landscape.
The seat was previously held by Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet, who won with 53% of the vote 4 years ago in 2022, before vacating the position 1 year ago in January 2025 following her election to Congress. In the 2024 presidential contest within the district, Democrat Kamala Harris narrowly edged Trump, 49.7% to 48.9%, primarily due to a 17-percentage-point lead in the Saginaw portion. Trump, however, posted smaller leads in the Bay and Midland county sections of the district. Voters in the district also favored Democrat Joe Biden over Trump in the 2020 presidential race by a slightly larger margin, indicating a fluctuating political identity within the local population.
The nominees vying for the seat are Democrat Chedrick Greene, a firefighter and former state Senate aide to McDonald Rivet, who secured 60% of the vote in the special primary 3 months ago on Feb. 3. Republican Jason Tunney, an attorney and former executive at his family’s roofing company, won the GOP special primary with 51% of the vote. Libertarian Ali Sledz, a graduate student and Army spouse, received her party's nomination in January.
The Mechanism of Control
Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced the special primary date 9 months ago in August 2025. The winner of Tuesday's special election will serve the remaining eight months of the term. Both Greene and Tunney have already filed to run in the Aug. 4 primaries for nomination to a full term, indicating a sustained contest for this critical seat.
The electoral process itself has seen significant early engagement. Nearly 46,000 voters cast ballots in the special primary 3 months ago. In the regularly scheduled 2022 general election, approximately 116,000 ballots were cast in the district. Early and absentee votes constituted about 43% of the total Democratic primary vote and approximately 29% of the Republican vote in the Feb. 3 special primaries. As of Friday, about 32,000 ballots had already been cast in the special election, reflecting a trend towards pre-Election Day voting that can influence outcomes.
Michigan’s mandatory recount law does not apply to state Senate races, leaving candidates to request and pay for recounts, with payment refunded only if the outcome changes. This system places the burden of ensuring electoral integrity on individual campaigns rather than providing robust institutional safeguards, a mechanism that can further entrench the outcomes favored by the established political apparatus.