Israel has occupied additional land beyond the Golan Heights, a stark reality highlighted by Joshua Landis, a professor in Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. This ongoing land confiscation unfolds as a series of US-backed diplomatic maneuvers across the Middle East aim to reshape regional arrangements, often solidifying Israel's position.
These developments include US-mediated negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, a potential Syrian security arrangement, and renewed engagement between Bahrain and Israel. The diplomatic activity coincides with mounting military, economic, and political pressure on governments caught between Washington and Tehran.
US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met in Washington five days ago, on Tuesday, July 28. Their discussions came days before Israeli and Lebanese representatives were scheduled to return to Rome for another round of US-mediated talks. These discussions focus on border arrangements, Israeli withdrawals, and proposed “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon, with the next round set to begin in two days, on August 4.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated seven days ago, on July 26, that Damascus was working with several countries to reach a security agreement with Israel. Al-Sharaa indicated that a successful arrangement could create a path toward comprehensive peace without requiring Syria to relinquish its claim to the Golan Heights.
Dr. Nir Boms, a research fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, suggested that Israel and Syria share overlapping long-term interests, including security arrangements and their approach to Hezbollah. He believes there's pragmatism in Syrian policy, with al-Sharaa understanding a “real challenge coming from Israel in the south.”
However, Landis offered a more skeptical assessment, emphasizing al-Sharaa's significant problem: Israel's occupation of additional land beyond the Golan Heights. Landis asserted that Syria needs Israel to withdraw from this land for any peace agreement to materialize. He noted that while al-Sharaa might conceivably accept continued Israeli control over the Golan Heights, he couldn't accept the loss of additional territory occupied after the collapse of Bashar Assad’s government. Syria is too weak, Landis explained, and Israel is too strong, making its position clear: “we're staying in this situation.”
Solidifying Occupation
The Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon remains a contentious issue in the ongoing negotiations. Disputes also persist over Hezbollah’s weapons and the sequencing of any Israeli withdrawal. Dr. Boms suggested Lebanon faces a choice between restoring its authority and continuing to accommodate Hezbollah as a separate military structure.
Landis rejected the likelihood that the Lebanese state could disarm Hezbollah under current conditions. He stated that Hezbollah won't be defeated, and the Lebanese army is in no position to confront them. Politicians in Lebanon, he added, aren't interested in pushing an internal military confrontation.
A former Bahraini diplomat, who requested anonymity, warned that these negotiations risk becoming “short-lived diplomatic bubbles” without a broader regional understanding. He highlighted Hezbollah’s significant popular support and military infrastructure, noting its preparedness for a prolonged war of attrition in coordination with Tehran. The Lebanese government, he explained, currently lacks both consensus in the south and the military capacity to enforce disarmament, rendering any diplomatic agreement fragile.
US Complicity and Regional Alignment
Seven days ago, on July 26, Israeli President Isaac Herzog spoke by telephone with Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa. They discussed bilateral relations, the Abraham Accords, and recent regional developments. This call, initiated and publicized by Bahrain, marked the leaders’ first publicly disclosed conversation since the October 7 attacks.
The former Bahraini diplomat stated that Manama continues to view its relationship with Washington and Israel as central to its security. Bahrain, he said, appears to remain firmly anchored within the “US-Israel defense umbrella,” despite enduring sustained missile and drone pressure from Iran and its regional allies. He cautioned that continued reliance on external deterrence could become politically and strategically unsustainable if the campaign against Iran failed to produce a clear result.
Chama Mechtaly, a policy adviser and founder of the Emma Lazarus Institute for Liberty and Tolerance, described the call as reflecting the institutional relationships built among the original Abraham Accords countries. She emphasized the accumulated trust, relational capital, and institutional cooperation that cannot be manufactured overnight.
The Unaddressed Palestinian Question
New uncertainty surrounds Saudi Arabia, which remains a central test for any broader diplomatic breakthrough. Washington and Riyadh signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement eleven days ago, on July 22. However, President Trump subsequently stated he wouldn't allow it to proceed unless Saudi Arabia normalized relations with Israel and joined the Abraham Accords.
Saudi Arabia has consistently maintained that formal normalization requires a credible path toward Palestinian statehood. Landis echoed this, stating that Saudi Arabia has made it very clear they won't move ahead on the Abraham Accords without such a pathway, a development he doesn't foresee happening.
The former Bahraini diplomat explained that Saudi Arabia’s stature as the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques in Islam represents its ultimate soft power and geopolitical weight. He believes that surrendering this leverage easily through formal normalization, without an explicit, irreversible path to Palestinian statehood, carries a reputational cost that far outweighs the incremental security benefits of the Accords. Riyadh, he suggested, can deepen intelligence, economic, and technological cooperation with Israel behind the scenes without formal embassies.
Dr. Boms confirmed that Saudi Arabia isn't going to join the Abraham Accords. He said the Saudis would like to show they can move forward and create a breakthrough on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which would be their path to rapprochement. The outcome of these regional shifts, the article concluded, may depend on unresolved questions about Iran’s military capabilities, Hezbollah’s weapons, Syria’s territorial integrity, Palestinian statehood, and the willingness of Arab governments to absorb the domestic costs of closer relations with Israel. Landis described the situation in Lebanon as a “forever war” that will continue to stumble forward and “suck Israel in.”