US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met in Washington on Tuesday, July 28, for their first face-to-face talks since the United States and Israel began their current war with Iran. This high-stakes meeting, occurring just five days ago, underscores the ongoing confrontation that places regional governments under mounting military, economic, and political pressure. While specific topics were not released, the discussions took place days before Israeli and Lebanese representatives are set to return to Rome for US-mediated border negotiations.
An Israeli official confirmed the next round of talks would begin on August 4, focusing on border arrangements, Israeli withdrawals, and proposed “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon. These negotiations occur amidst persistent disputes over Hezbollah’s weapons and the Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon. Dr. Nir Boms, a research fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, stated that Lebanon faces a critical choice: either restore its authority or continue to accommodate Hezbollah as a separate military structure. He believes Lebanon must create a Shia power framework divorced from Hezbollah.
Iran's Proxy Network Tightens Grip
Joshua Landis, a professor in Middle East Studies, offered a skeptical assessment, asserting that Hezbollah won't be defeated. He noted the Lebanese army is in no position to confront them, and politicians aren't interested in an internal military confrontation. Landis described the situation as a "forever war" that will "suck Israel in," remaining a "low simmer." A former Bahraini diplomat, who requested anonymity, warned that these negotiations risk becoming “short-lived diplomatic bubbles” without a broader regional understanding. He emphasized that Hezbollah retains significant popular support and military infrastructure, remaining prepared for a prolonged war of attrition in coordination with Tehran.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said in an interview broadcast seven days ago, on July 26, that Damascus was working with several countries to reach a security agreement with Israel. Al-Sharaa suggested a successful arrangement could create a path toward comprehensive peace without requiring Syria to relinquish its claim to the Golan Heights. Dr. Boms highlighted that Israel and Syria share overlapping long-term interests, including security arrangements and a common approach to Hezbollah. Both sides aspire to limit radical armed actors in southern Syria and restrict weapons-smuggling networks connected to Hezbollah.
Western Resolve Under Strain
On the same day, Israeli President Isaac Herzog spoke by telephone with Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, discussing bilateral relations and the Abraham Accords. This call, initiated and publicized by Bahrain, was reportedly the leaders’ first publicly disclosed conversation since the October 7 attacks. The former Bahraini diplomat stated that Manama continues to view its relationship with Washington and Israel as central to its security. He added that despite enduring sustained missile and drone pressure from Iran and its regional allies, Bahrain appears to remain firmly anchored within the US-Israel defense umbrella.
New uncertainty surrounds Saudi Arabia, which signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Washington on July 22. President Trump subsequently stated he would not allow the agreement to proceed unless Saudi Arabia normalized relations with Israel and joined the Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia has maintained that formal normalization requires a credible path toward Palestinian statehood. Dr. Boms believes Saudi Arabia won't join the Abraham Accords, seeking instead to create a breakthrough on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as its path to rapprochement. The former Bahraini diplomat noted that Saudi Arabia’s status as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques represents its ultimate soft power, making formal normalization without an explicit, irreversible path to Palestinian statehood a significant reputational cost.
Chama Mechtaly, a policy adviser and founder of the Emma Lazarus Institute for Liberty and Tolerance, warned that regional integration could provoke armed opposition from proxy groups. She stressed that the success of diplomacy depends on whether states are prepared to confront the networks that can obstruct implementation. The former Bahraini diplomat cautioned that continued reliance on external deterrence could become politically and strategically unsustainable if the campaign against Iran failed to produce a clear result. He warned that if US deterrence fails to achieve a decisive strategic outcome, even frontline states may be forced to pursue a new, pragmatic security framework that accommodates Iran as a permanent regional stakeholder.