Federal Power and Gerrymanders Shape Midterm Vote

The Justice Department, following Trump’s orders, sued to block Alaska from certifying its Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola. The department argued that a second Republican candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan, was trying to confuse voters. Election law expert Derek Muller, a professor at Notre Dame Law School, called the argument “one of the worst ones I've ever seen.”

One week before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, state and local officials prepared for possible federal interference at polling places and during vote counting. The contest for Congress is tight, but rules governing districts—and the power to challenge election administration—shape what voters can actually decide.

The machinery around the vote

The New York Times reported that officials were training poll workers on the law barring federal agents from voting places and reviewing limits on federal election monitors. They prepared for scenarios involving immigration enforcement officers at polling places, misconduct by federal monitors, or attempts to seize votes or voting machines. The report said no one knew whether any of those scenarios would occur; federal officials had dismissed the prospect of agents or soldiers being sent to polls, and courts had blocked most of Trump's efforts to insert the federal government into state and local election administration.

“This is the first time ever that we have had to engage in scenario planning to safeguard against potential federal interference in elections,” Shenna Bellows, Maine's secretary of state, said. “It seems like the federal government is now adversarial to the states.” David Becker, a former voting rights lawyer for the Justice Department who runs the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research, said the most chilling possibilities were unlikely because courts would probably block them. “But election officials feel more comfortable to know they've thought about this, and discussed it,” he said.

The Justice Department also sued California to stop the state from counting mail ballots from people it called “likely” noncitizens, citing a list of 20,000 names. California's secretary of state said the administration offered no evidence. A federal appeals court blocked the effort on Monday. The department made a similar claim this summer about nearly 16,000 likely noncitizen voters in Nevada; further investigation found every person initially flagged was a citizen.

Votes aren't the same as power

More than 31 million early votes had been cast, and polls showed Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 44% among likely voters for Congress, according to a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. Yet forecasts said Democrats could win millions more votes and gain only a few House seats. Gerrymandering and redistricting leave perhaps only about four dozen of the 435 House seats truly competitive, CNN reported. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for a majority, and the races expected to decide control were mostly neck-and-neck.

A New York Times analysis ranked congressional maps in 44 states with more than one district, using 5,000 computer-simulated maps per state. It called Texas the country's worst gerrymander and said the map aimed to change the national balance of power. North of Austin, five congressional districts could be crossed in about 10 minutes; Dallas-area districts stretched hundreds of miles, including one reaching the New Mexico border. The analysis said a party-blind map could produce a dozen additional competitive or Democratic-leaning districts.

California redrew its map to counter Texas. Kamala Harris would have won 48 of 52 districts on the new map, while the analysis judged the Texas map slightly more extreme. In Florida, the new map had 24 districts that voted for Trump and four for Harris after Republicans eliminated districts around Tampa and Jacksonville and divided Democratic-leaning areas around Miami and Orlando. Tennessee's map divided Memphis and Nashville to produce a 9-0 Republican advantage.

Campaign money, public pressure

The poll found cost of living was the top issue for 34% of likely voters, followed by preserving democracy at 33%. Thirty-eight percent said their family finances had worsened over the past year, and 35% of registered voters reported financial hardship in the past year. Ad spending in the 2026 midterm cycle had topped $10 billion, according to AdImpact data, putting it on course to be the most expensive election cycle in U.S. history. Still, 39% of likely voters said no campaign, party or civic group had contacted them.

Trump urged voters to treat the midterms as a vote on him. Forty-four percent of likely voters said their congressional vote was mostly against Trump, more than twice the 21% who said it was for him; 35% said he wasn't much of a factor. “Polling ain't voting,” the New York Times morning briefing warned. More than three-quarters of likely voters said they were confident state or local government would run a fair and accurate election, while eight in 10 said a losing candidate should accept the results. The ballots, maps, and power to administer the count remain bound together in a contest whose outcome no poll can guarantee.