Democratic confidence in accurate vote counting has fallen from 75% before the 2022 midterms to 55% this year, according to a new AP-NORC poll. Overall, 45% of registered voters now say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in vote accuracy, down from 50% four years ago. The survey came less than a month before the Nov. 3 election, as President Donald Trump pushes for greater federal authority over how Americans vote.
About 9 in 10 Democratic voters called a president trying to influence election outcomes a major problem. Only about 2 in 10 Republicans agreed.
Voters on the Ground
Daemien Williams, 50, a Democrat from Centreville, Illinois, didn't mince words. “I don't put anything past these people,” he said. “My trust level is at its all-time low.” He still plans to vote, calling it the only power he has to choose his representatives. “If you take that away from America, you pretty much take away the foundation of this country.”
Williams worried that Trump and Republicans might intimidate voters or seize ballots. Eugenio Mendez, 49, an independent from Columbia, South Carolina, who leans Democratic, said he'll vote in person because he doesn't trust a mailed ballot to be counted. Brooklyn Johnson, 26, a Democrat from Davis, California, pointed to Trump's promise of $5,000 for every American adult if Republicans keep Congress. “The fact that he's been trying to bribe people, that's a little weird,” she said. “It doesn't seem legal.”
Republican voters see things differently. Alan Curtis, 67, of Grove, Oklahoma, said he feels better about the process, partly because Trump's stance serves as a deterrent. “I think the election officials will be running scared,” he said. He added that he still believes Democrats could cheat, an accusation Trump often makes without evidence. Republican confidence in vote accuracy climbed from 26% to about 38%.
The Federal Push
The Constitution gives states and Congress control over voting processes. Trump has sought more federal power through executive actions and lawsuits, so far without success. He signaled that federal prosecutors should look for fraud and suggested legal challenges if results don't go his way. His administration sued California officials over alleged noncitizens on voter rolls and warned that election workers who process noncitizen ballots could face criminal investigation and prosecution.
The administration said it has no plans to send military or immigration agents to patrol polling places. But the head of the Department of Homeland Security said immigration officers could conduct targeted operations, such as making an arrest with a warrant. Critics raised concerns about voter intimidation and cited a Justice Department plan to deploy 1,000 monitors to voting locations. Trump also signed an executive order directing changes at the Postal Service meant to restrict mail voting; the Supreme Court didn't let the plan proceed for the midterms.
Only 17% of registered voters said they were extremely or very confident the Supreme Court would handle a midterm-related case fairly and without partisanship.
The parties also disagree about what threatens elections. About 7 in 10 Republican voters called voting by ineligible people a major problem, compared with 25% of Democrats. Majorities in both parties, though, viewed foreign influence, AI-generated misinformation and partisan redistricting as major problems. The AP-NORC survey ran Oct. 8-12 among 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 points for registered voters.
A Public Hungry for Change
A CNN poll conducted by SSRS puts Democrats ahead of Republicans 49%-39% in the congressional vote among registered voters, their largest lead in CNN polling since just before the 2020 election. Trump's approval stands at 32%, a record low in the poll. Roughly 6 in 10 voters said their midterm vote would send a message about him, and by a 2-to-1 margin, that message is opposition.
Cost of living tops voters' concerns. Two-thirds of Americans, including about one-third of Republicans, said Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions. Nearly 7 in 10 said he hasn't gone far enough to reduce prices, while majorities said he has gone too far in using presidential power and overseeing deportations. His approval is 27% on the economy and 23% on inflation. Democrats led 46%-37% among voters who named the economy as their top concern.
Trump's support is eroding even among his base. His approval among Republicans fell to 74% from 88% in February 2025. Among White voters without college degrees, it dropped to 45% from 63% at the start of his second term, and 64% of that group disapproved of his handling of the economy.
Democrats hold a 70-point lead among Black voters, 40 points among Latino voters, 21 among women and 31 among younger adults. Still, mid-decade redistricting and competitive races in districts Trump carried by double digits could limit their gains. Enthusiasm isn't universal: 41% said the country would be better off if Democrats won Congress, 37% said worse, and 22% said it wouldn't matter. Among the 18% of voters who dislike both parties, 48% favor the Democrat, but 65% said neither party could do a better job of bringing change. About 13% of voters had already voted, favoring Democrats 70%-29%.
California's Quiet Verdict
In California, a Citrin-POLITICO poll found only 36% of voters rated Gov. Gavin Newsom's last eight years “good” or “excellent,” and just 28% wanted his successor to continue his policies. Yet Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton by 20 points. “Becerra basically wins everyone — the third of the electorate that wants to continue the policies — and picks up nearly a third of those who want change,” said Jon Cohen of TrueDot.
Newsom earned his best marks on climate change. His weakest reviews concerned housing and homelessness: 28% said he'd done a good job on housing and 25% on homelessness, with nearly three in four saying he hadn't handled homelessness well. Newsom spokesperson Izzy Gardon said he is “the most popular outgoing Governor in the history of PPIC polling the question.”
Why This Matters: The numbers describe an electorate bracing for trouble at the ballot box while demanding relief at the checkout counter. Democratic distrust in vote counting has grown even as courts have so far blocked the administration's efforts to expand federal control over elections. That gap between fear and outcome matters: voters who doubt their ballots will count may stay home or be easier to discourage. The poll also shows pocketbook pain crossing party lines: a third of Republicans say Trump's policies have hurt the economy. In California, persistent complaints about housing and homelessness show voters want government to deliver on basic needs, whichever party holds power. Whether Washington answers that call is what voters say this election is about.
- midterm elections
- election confidence
- democracy
- ap-norc
- cnn poll
- donald trump
- voting rights
- congressional elections