Midterm Polls: Voters Distrust Both Parties, Want Change

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 32% in a new CNN poll, a record low in that survey, with the midterm elections less than two weeks away. Democrats lead Republicans 49%-39% among registered voters in the national choice for Congress, the poll found. That’s their biggest lead in CNN polling since just before the 2020 election.

The numbers warn the governing party. They also warn the party poised to benefit: voters aren’t enthusiastic about either.

The Pocketbook Problem

The cost of living tops voters’ concerns, and Trump’s marks on the issue are poor. His approval stands at 27% on the economy and 23% on inflation. Two-thirds of Americans, including about one-third of Republicans, say his policies have worsened economic conditions. Nearly 7 in 10 say he hasn’t done enough to reduce prices.

The comparison with 2018 is stark. Before those midterms, 55% said conditions in the country were generally going well, and 69% called the economy good. Before this year’s midterms, those figures are 30% and 26%.

Democrats lead 46%-37% among voters who name the economy as their top concern. Yet about 3 in 10 voters say neither party would do a good job on those issues, and a similar share say neither party has the right priorities.

Erosion within Trump’s own coalition is notable. His approval among Republicans is 74%, down from 88% in February 2025. Nearly 4 in 10 Republican-aligned adults younger than 45 disapprove of him. Among White voters without college degrees, approval has fallen to 45% from 63% at the start of his second term. In that group, 64% disapprove of his handling of the economy and 68% disapprove of his handling of inflation.

A Lukewarm Mandate

Don’t mistake discontent with Trump for rising confidence in Democrats. Both parties have net-negative favorability ratings. Only 41% say the country would be better off if Democrats won control of Congress, while 37% say it would be worse off and 22% say it would make no difference. Among independents, 36% say a change in control wouldn’t matter.

The 18% of voters who view both parties negatively stand out. Ninety percent say their vote is about changing Washington, yet 65% say neither party could do a better job of bringing that change. The poll found that a 10-point nationwide Democratic lead would represent roughly a 13-point swing from the 2024 House popular vote. Mid-decade redistricting and competitive races in districts Trump carried by double digits could limit Democratic gains.

California shows how voters separate their verdict on performance from their choice at the ballot box. A Citrin-POLITICO poll found only 36% rate Newsom’s eight years as governor “good” or “excellent,” and just 28% want the next governor to continue his policies. Nearly three in four say he hasn’t handled homelessness well. Only 28% credit him with doing a good job on housing.

Still, Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton by 20 points. “Becerra basically wins everyone — the third of the electorate that wants to continue the policies — and picks up nearly a third of those who want change,” said Jon Cohen, CEO of TrueDot. Berkeley professor Jack Citrin put it plainly: “If you look at the evaluations of him going out, they’re not all that positive.”

Trust in the Count

An AP-NORC poll shows how far the argument over election integrity has traveled. Democrats’ confidence that votes will be counted accurately fell from 75% in 2022 to 55% this year. Republican confidence rose from 26% to about 38%. Overall, 45% of voters have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence, down from 50% in 2022.

The parties see different threats. About 7 in 10 Republican voters call voting by ineligible people a major problem, compared with 25% of Democrats. About 9 in 10 Democrats say a president trying to influence election outcomes is a major problem, versus about 2 in 10 Republicans. Majorities in both parties see foreign influence, AI-generated misinformation and partisan redistricting as major problems.

The administration has pushed for more federal control over elections through executive actions and lawsuits, so far without success. The Constitution gives states and Congress control over voting processes. The Supreme Court blocked an executive order aimed at restricting mail voting from proceeding for the midterms. The administration also sued California officials over alleged noncitizens on voter rolls and warned that election workers who process noncitizen ballots could face prosecution.

There’s common ground. Republicans overwhelmingly back voter ID and proof-of-citizenship rules for registration, and a majority of Democrats also favor voter ID. Only 17% of registered voters are extremely or very confident the Supreme Court would handle a midterm-related case fairly and without partisanship.

People’s reactions vary. Republican Alan Curtis of Grove, Oklahoma, said he feels better about the process this year. “I think the election officials will be running scared,” he said. Democrat Daemien Williams of Centreville, Illinois, said, “My trust level is at its all-time low,” though he’ll still vote.

Why This Matters:

Voters are signaling dissatisfaction with whoever holds power, and the economy is driving it. When two-thirds of the public says the president’s policies have worsened conditions and nearly 7 in 10 want more done on prices, the governing party can’t count on loyalty alone. But the findings also suggest the opposition hasn’t earned a mandate. Large shares of voters see neither party as having the right priorities or the ability to deliver change. For markets and households, that points to a divided, restless electorate, one that will judge results over rhetoric. With trust in the count slipping among Democrats and ineligible voting a top worry for Republicans, the legitimacy question will outlast Nov. 3 unless state officials, whom the Constitution charges with running elections, deliver clean, transparent counts.