Cost Pressures Drive Voter Anger as Election Trust Falls

Two-thirds of Americans said President Donald Trump's policies had worsened economic conditions, and cost of living remained voters' leading issue ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. In the AP-NORC poll, Democrats' confidence that officials would count votes accurately fell from 75% in 2022 to 55% this year. The surveys document voter concerns over prices, housing and political power, but report no figures on wages, company profits or union activity.

Prices and political choices

The CNN poll found Democrats leading Republicans 49%-39% among registered voters choosing a candidate for Congress in their districts. More than three-quarters of voters said the election offered a chance to change Washington. About 6 in 10 said their midterm vote would send a message about Trump, and opposition outweighed support by a 2-to-1 margin.

Cost-of-living concerns topped the list of issues. Among registered voters who named the economy as their top concern, Democrats led 46%-37% and were seen as better able to handle the economy and cost of living. About 3 in 10 voters said neither party would do a good job on those issues; a similar share said neither party had the right priorities.

Trump's approval rating was 32% in the CNN poll, a record low in that survey. His approval stood at 27% on the economy and 23% on inflation. Nearly 7 in 10 voters said he hadn't gone far enough to reduce prices, while majorities said he had gone too far in using presidential power and overseeing deportations.

The poll found that 41% thought the country would be better off if Democrats won control of Congress, 37% thought it would be worse off, and 22% said it would make no difference. Among voters with negative views of both parties, 48% favored the Democratic candidate in their district, 28% the Republican and 18% neither. In that group, 65% said neither party could do a better job of bringing change.

Election rules and state power

In the AP-NORC poll, 45% of voters said they had a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in vote accuracy, down from 50% in 2022. Confidence among Republicans rose from 26% to about 38%, while independents remained at 34%. About 9 in 10 Democratic voters called a president attempting to influence election outcomes a major problem, compared with about 2 in 10 Republicans.

Democrat Daemien Williams, 50, of Centreville, Illinois, said, "I don't put anything past these people," and added, "My trust level is at its all-time low." He said he'd still vote, calling it the only power he had to choose his representatives: "If you take that away from America, you pretty much take away the foundation of this country."

The poll came less than a month before Election Day, as Trump pursued greater federal authority over elections through executive actions and lawsuits, so far without success. The Constitution gives states and Congress control over voting processes. His administration sued California officials over alleged noncitizens on voter rolls and warned election workers who process noncitizen ballots they could face criminal investigation and prosecution. The administration said it had no plans to send military or immigration agents to patrol polling places. The head of the Department of Homeland Security said immigration officers could conduct targeted operations, such as making an arrest with a warrant.

Trump signed an executive order directing changes at the Postal Service intended to restrict mail voting, but the Supreme Court didn't allow the plan to proceed for the midterms. Only 17% of registered voters were extremely or very confident the Supreme Court would handle a midterm-related case fairly and without partisanship.

Housing, homelessness and the limits of party choice

In California, a Citrin-POLITICO poll found that only 36% rated Gavin Newsom's performance over the last eight years as "good" or "excellent," and 28% wanted his successor to continue his policies. Yet Xavier Becerra led Republican Steve Hilton by 20 percentage points. The poll described Becerra as a mainstream Democrat who had praised Newsom during the primary.

Voters gave Newsom his weakest reviews on housing and homelessness. Twenty-eight percent said he had done a good job on housing, 25% on homelessness, and nearly three in four said he hadn't handled homelessness well. On artificial intelligence, 35% said he had done well and 43% said he had not.

About half of registered voters planned to vote on Election Day, with the rest planning to vote early or by mail; about 13% said they had already voted. Those who had voted favored Democrats 70%-29%. Among voters who hadn't yet cast ballots, Democrats led 46%-41%.