Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces a surprisingly competitive challenge from Democrat Scott Colom in Mississippi's U.S. Senate race, where financial parity and demographic shifts are creating uncertainty in what should be safe Republican territory. Through June, Hyde-Smith had raised $3.8 million with $2.5 million remaining, while Colom raised $2.8 million with $850,000 left—a narrow gap that's unusual for a Deep South Republican incumbent.
Colom, a Black prosecutor who grew up in Mississippi with a Republican father who campaigned for Ronald Reagan, is running as an underdog in a state run for generations by white conservatives. He's trying to unseat Hyde-Smith, a white Trump supporter seeking her second full term. The race comes as Republicans defend their 53-47 Senate majority at the midpoint of Trump's second presidency.
The Democratic Strategy
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer recently held a fundraiser for Colom, and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, Maryland's first Black senator, traveled to Mississippi to support him as Democrats search for every path to Senate control. "I can guarantee you one thing, I'm not the last," Alsobrooks said during their joint campaign appearance.
Colom's campaign focuses on economic issues rather than Mississippi's fraught racial history. "I'm going to fight the corruption that we're seeing in D.C. that's making everything less affordable," Colom told The Associated Press, pointing to Trump's tariffs, the Iran war and the Republican-controlled Congress' capitulation on both. He criticizes Hyde-Smith for using campaign funds at Las Vegas hotels and avoiding town halls with constituents.
The prosecutor emphasized that "400,000 Mississippians that don't have health insurance" because the state hasn't expanded Medicaid and Republicans, Hyde-Smith included, let expanded insurance premium subsidies expire. He also mentions Mississippi farmers harmed by tariffs and promises voters will see crime victims and their families vouch for him.
The Republican Response
Hyde-Smith declined an interview through aides. Her campaign manager, Jake Monssen, dismissed Colom's chances entirely. "No one believes in Scott Colom except for Scott Colom," Monssen said, calling him a stooge of Schumer and billionaire donor George Soros, whose family backed Colom's district attorney races.
Monssen said voters will see Colom as trying "to transition kids' genders," raise taxes and give "healthcare to illegal immigrants" to please his "socialist supporters" from the coasts. Hyde-Smith's aides say she travels regularly to community events around Mississippi and only annually to Las Vegas for a national campaign fundraiser she plans around a professional rodeo event.
Republican Steve Rogers, 73, of Brandon, said, "I like how she votes, and I think any Democrat's wasting their time." He hasn't even heard of Colom. Trump's slide "may give her some trouble," Rogers said, "but I think she coasts."
The Electoral Math
The outcome hinges on what Charles Taylor, the Mississippi NAACP State Conference Executive Director, called "simple math." Black voters make up about 37% of Mississippi's 2.95 million residents and about a third of the typical November electorate, more than in any other state, according to strategists in both major parties. More than 9 out of 10 Black voters typically vote Democratic but turn out at a lower rate than white voters, especially younger generations. White voters opt by a 4-1 ratio or more for Republicans.
That makes most Mississippi elections closer than in neighboring Alabama and Louisiana. In 2018, Hyde-Smith won a special election runoff over Mike Espy, Mississippi's first Black congressman since Reconstruction and a former U.S. agriculture secretary, by 7 percentage points. She won a rematch in 2020 by 10 percentage points but trailed Trump's 16-point margin over Democrat Joe Biden. Three years ago, Republican Gov. Tate Reeves won reelection by 3 percentage points and finished less than 1 percentage point over the majority threshold Mississippi law requires to avoid a runoff in statewide general elections.
Wilbur Colom, Scott's father who once lost a state treasurer's race as a Republican, said his son could win by increasing the Black share of the electorate to 35% and getting closer to one out of four white votes rather than the typical 20% or less. "That's hard," Wilbur Colom said. "But demographics are our friend here."
Financial Firepower
Colom outpaced Hyde-Smith among individual contributors, $1.9 million to $1.8 million, from the start of 2025, and more of his money, $536,000, came from Mississippi than any other state. There's no statewide TV advertising yet, but Senate Majority PAC spokeswoman Lauren French said the group is "watching closely." It doesn't take seven figures per ad buy to penetrate the electorate, unlike in more populous states such as Texas, Georgia and North Carolina, so late national party or super PAC spending could matter.
Colom acknowledged financial support from the Soros family but said no candidate controls outside political action committees. He pointed to his prosecution of a Democratic sheriff for sexual abuse of a prisoner as proof that partisanship doesn't guide him. Voters, including many who've backed Trump and Hyde-Smith, "are smart enough," he said, to "see through the lies."
Judy Weiner, a 72-year-old poll worker in Hinds County, said Hyde-Smith distinguishes herself only by her fealty to Trump and not by securing appropriations and helping rank-and-file Mississippians, as her predecessor Thad Cochran did. "He made his decisions based on what was good for all the people in Mississippi, not because the president whispered in his ear," she said, noting Cochran attracted votes from Black and white Democrats.
Why This Matters:
The Mississippi Senate race reveals the limits of demographic change as a political force without corresponding shifts in voter behavior and turnout. While Colom's fundraising competitiveness and national Democratic support signal party investment, the fundamental math remains daunting: Republicans have won statewide races here by margins ranging from 3 to 16 percentage points in recent cycles. Hyde-Smith's ability to hold this seat with minimal public engagement and reliance on Trump loyalty rather than constituent service reflects a broader question about accountability in safe seats. For Republicans defending a 53-47 Senate majority, any competitive race in Mississippi would indicate serious national headwinds. The race also tests whether economic frustration with tariffs and healthcare costs can overcome deep partisan and racial voting patterns in the Deep South. Mississippi's inexpensive media markets mean late spending could matter, but only if the fundamentals shift dramatically from historical norms.