Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking plans to grow its Middle East business by at least 10 per cent next year, despite the Iran war and contracting economies clouding the regional outlook. The French lender also plans to hire more bankers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, its two largest regional markets.
Growth amid contraction
Bruno Le Saint, chief executive of Natixis CIB for Asia Pacific and Middle East, said the bank expects double-digit growth across the region. “In the overall region, we want to grow in double digits on average. This is what we've been doing over the past years and going forward we'll keep that pace,” he told The National.
Natixis hopes to approach 20 per cent growth over the next two to four years, Le Saint said, although that result also depends on growth across the rest of its business. For the broader Middle East, the bank expects at least 10 per cent growth next year.
The World Bank forecast that Gulf economies would contract by an average of 4.3 per cent this year, revising its April forecast down by 5.7 percentage points. The International Monetary Fund also expected the region’s oil-rich economies to contract this year before a strong recovery next year, provided shipping operations return to normal, managing director Kristalina Georgieva said.
The Iran war began on February 28. All-out hostilities stopped in early April, but several attempts to secure a permanent agreement to end the conflict have failed.
Le Saint said he remained “quite confident” about the bank’s prospects. Still, a contracting market makes it harder for Natixis CIB to reach its “natural market share,” he acknowledged. He said the bank’s franchise and expertise match client needs and predicted it could maintain its current pace. If the conflict continued for the next two to three years, he said, his assessment “might at some point be revisited.”
Expansion in regional markets
Natixis CIB operates from the Dubai International Financial Centre, where 80 personnel work for the bank. It plans to add staff and capabilities on the ground. “I think it's important because, in the context of the current situation, I don't think there have been many international banks growing staff in this region,” Le Saint said.
The bank also plans to expand in Saudi Arabia through its subsidiary, Natixis Saudi Arabia Investment Company. “We still think that we are underinvested in Saudi Arabia,” Le Saint said. The bank’s expertise in telecoms, energy, infrastructure, metals and mining aligns with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 agenda.
Natixis CIB is weighing an expansion into Turkey, which Le Saint called “a big economy in the region.” For now, he said, the possibility remains “under exploration.” The bank serves clients in markets including Oman and Turkey, while its Dubai hub covers Central Asia.
Capital markets and regional ties
Regional debt-capital-market deal volume fell by about 10 per cent this year. Le Saint called the market “relatively resilient,” saying borrowers held back because yields and rates were too high—not because liquidity was unavailable. Some borrowers can wait, turn to other funding options or rely on their own liquidity, he said.
“Chinese banks are coming back in the region and are investing massively, especially to support probably, the need to source and help the flow of energy to China,” Le Saint said. Many clients, he added, were waiting for better conditions or a new pool of liquidity.
Natixis CIB combined its Asia and Middle East operations at the beginning of last year. The platform accounts for more than 15 per cent of the bank’s overall business, and Natixis wants to lift that share to 20 per cent or more. Le Saint said the combined operation can connect Middle Eastern clients with Asian markets and give Asian clients access to funding pools in oil-rich Middle Eastern countries.