Washington Holds Ukraine’s Patriot Missiles in Limbo

Ukraine is still waiting for U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles as Russia intensifies attacks on Ukrainian cities, and NATO allies say they don’t know whether Washington will release them before the November 3 midterm elections. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says U.S. Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth has yet to approve additional interceptors. One NATO source described the delay as “unpredictable.”

The uncertainty leaves Ukraine dependent on decisions made in Washington while civilians continue to die. Some analysts believe President Donald Trump is using military aid to press Kyiv for concessions and to show voters he is acting on rising energy prices. The weapons are routed through NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List, under which allies fund purchases of U.S. military equipment for transfer to Kyiv. The money may come from allies; the release decision remains in U.S. hands.

Missiles, leverage and the midterms

Zelenskyy said Russia had launched more than 100 ballistic missiles at Kyiv and the surrounding region over the previous two weeks. Separate Ukrainian estimates put U.S. production at around 60 to 65 Patriot interceptors a month—fewer than the number Russia launched at the area in those two weeks. Those missiles must also supply other U.S. allies and partners, including countries in the Middle East and the Gulf.

Trump has pressed Ukraine to stop striking Russian diesel refineries, saying the attacks drive up global energy prices and hurt American and European consumers. During a visit to his golf resort in Ireland in September, he said: “There are plenty of other targets. Don't hit diesel fuel. That's hurting the world.” The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies passed, triggered what the International Energy Agency described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

With Trump’s approval ratings at record lows ahead of the midterms, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker said Trump wants voters to see him addressing the price of diesel. Volker said Trump might want to claim: “I've got Vladimir Putin giving us diesel, and I've got Zelensky to stop attacking the refineries, so 'I'm fighting for you'.” The possible bargain is described in electoral terms; Ukraine’s access to air-defence weapons hangs in the balance.

One NATO source said Trump was using “as much leverage as he has over Ukraine ahead of the midterms” and suggested he wanted Kyiv to accept a peace deal involving territorial concessions. Two sources said Washington was frustrated by the lack of progress toward ending Russia’s war against Ukraine and wanted it to end as soon as possible. One called the war a “stone in the boot” for Washington.

Allies asked to supply, but don’t

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged allies to send their own Patriot systems bilaterally. Greece and Spain have considerable stockpiles of the less technically advanced PAC-2 systems, NATO sources say, but neither Athens nor Madrid has heeded the call to hand over interceptors. Meanwhile, Volker said European countries had purchased Patriot missiles that had not been delivered to Ukraine. “And there's no information or explanation from the Pentagon about this,” he said.

The delivery uncertainty also affects Ukraine’s access to NASAMS, a U.S.-Norwegian air-defence system designed to counter short- and medium-range aerial threats. The Patriot PAC-3 is Ukraine’s most capable weapon against ballistic missile attacks. A global shortage of PAC-3 interceptors is worsening as they’re used in the U.S. war against Iran.

Production promises, distant deliveries

The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies reported that U.S. inventories of Patriot and other interceptors, along with long-range strike munitions, had been depleted by about half during the conflict in Iran. Replenishing stocks is costly, technically complex and time-consuming. Patriot interceptors cost over $4 million each, and manufacturing them can take close to two years, according to estimates cited in the article.

A tentative U.S. commitment to let Ukraine produce Patriot missiles under licence has stalled, despite Trump announcing the initiative at the NATO summit in Ankara in July. Germany has a licence to produce PAC-2 interceptors, a less advanced and less expensive version of the PAC-3, but its production line is due to deliver units by December 2026 or January 2027 at the earliest. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said his government had offered to produce PAC-3 missiles. Ukraine has no clear timeline for additional deliveries.

European governments are also unsettled by restrictions affecting Ukraine’s access to Starlink satellite internet services and U.S.-led peace-talk proposals to unfreeze Russian assets held mainly in Europe and transfer them to the United States for future use in Ukraine. Volker said some proposals were “very much one-sided in favour of Russia.” The weapons, the money and the terms of negotiation move through state institutions and military alliances; civilians in Ukraine wait for protection.