European NATO members signed €43 billion in defence production and procurement deals at this week's Ankara summit, marking the most concrete step yet toward taking control of their own security after years of dependence on an increasingly unreliable United States. The agreements cover submarines, Patriot missile defence systems, interceptors and ammunition, as NATO committed to a credible path toward spending 5% of GDP on defence by 2035 — nine years from now.
The summit also saw NATO select Swedish company Saab to manufacture surveillance planes replacing the current Airborne Warning and Control System operated with US Boeing aircraft. That's a shift toward European manufacturing that reflects growing unease about American commitments. Another major initiative, NATO's Drone Hedge, will invest €35 billion in counter-drone capabilities over the next five years, covering the entire alliance with fully interoperable systems and expanded pilot training.
The Strategic Shift
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said at the Defence Industry Forum on Tuesday: "Drones have fundamentally altered, as we all know, the character of modern warfare. They have become a decisive factor on the battlefield. This is clear from what we see in Ukraine, in the Middle East, and across the alliance." He added: "New capabilities are being delivered, industry is expanding production, and European Allies and Canada are assuming greater responsibility for our shared security."
Daniel Fiott, Professor at the Vrije Universiteit Brussels, said: "The really interesting thing is how much work the European allies have done behind the scenes when it comes to defence and arms deals." He added: "Working together on difference aspects of security, and frankly that's what we need. We need more of it, and we need it on steroids at this precise moment in time."
Nico Lange, analyst with Rasmussen Global, said the Europeanisation of the alliance won't become reality unless members "replace NATO's strategic enablers with European ones." He said that included "satellite based time code, navigation, airborne electronic warfare and precision deep strike." Fiott acknowledged Europe would still need the US "at least for the short term as some weapons are only available from there," but said, "the direction of travel is very clear for the longer term." He added: "We're not going to be spending tax payers money in Europe without a return. And the return is jobs an European made capabilities and I think that is the longer term trajectory for Europe here."
Trump's Erratic Performance
Trump arrived at the summit Tuesday evening and said he was only present out of respect for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He castigated European countries for not supporting Washington in its war in Iran, though Rutte later said refusals by some states to let the US use European airbases as waystations were "isolated" incidents. Rutte said 5,000 US aircraft had taken off from European bases at the peak of the conflict, showing that "Europe again is one big platform of power projection for the United States."
Trump also revived his claim that the US should "control" Greenland, saying it should be controlled by the United States, not Denmark, and later saying Greenland was "very important" for the United States but not for Denmark. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said: "The US position is, unfortunately, very clear on this topic. Our position is as clear as it has been throughout: Greenland is not for sale. I hope all allies will respect the Greenlandic people's right to self-determination." She also said: "We are ready to defend every inch of NATO, including our own territory."
Trump attacked Spain and said he would order his administration to cut all trade with Madrid. "Spain is a wasted cause," he said. "We don't want to do any trade business with Spain anymore." By the end of the summit, however, there was no sign of such a policy being enacted, and Trump said: "There's one word that comes out of the day: unification," calling it a "great meeting."
Lange said Europe needed to take Trump's renewed threats toward Greenland seriously and never forget his mercurial nature.
Ukraine and Patriot Systems
Trump appeared to approve the licensing of US Patriot defence systems to Ukraine. Sitting next to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy ahead of their meeting in Ankara, Trump said: "A little birdie told me this, about the fact that we'll give them the right to make Patriots. We'll show them how to do it, it's very complex actually. But it's – you'll figure out the complexity quickly." Max Bergmann of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies said Trump's openness on this front was testament to Ukraine's strength. "President Zelenskyy and Ukraine have a lot of cards now, and Trump has realised he can't bully the Ukrainians now because Ukraine has moved on and is interacting with Brussels," Bergmann said.
A Missed Opportunity?
Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, wrote that the summit was a lost opportunity and that the alliance needs a roadmap for how and when Europe would take over core responsibilities for NATO's defence. He said the summit's declaration was a one-page, six-paragraph boilerplate statement and that there were no big decisions and no new agenda. He said the 2022 Madrid summit — four years ago — forced allies to confront Russia's threat, the 2023 Vilnius summit — three years ago — approved new NATO plans for defending all alliance territory, and the 2025 Hague summit — one year ago — forced European allies to respond to Trump's demand to spend 5 percent of GDP on defence. He said the Ankara summit had no such purpose.
He also said the idea of a roadmap had first been proposed by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius about one year ago, only to be dismissed for fear it would give Washington an excuse to withdraw its forces from Europe. Daalder said: "The new reality is this: The U.S. is no longer a reliable ally. Even if a new president were to reaffirm America's commitment to NATO and Article 5 (as Trump did in Ankara), Europe needs to take on far greater responsibility for its own defense."
Why This Matters:
The €43 billion in defence deals signed in Ankara represents European taxpayers' money finally being spent on European-made capabilities and European jobs — not American contractors. The shift toward Saab surveillance planes and the €35 billion Drone Hedge shows member states are serious about building sovereign defence capacity. That's fiscal responsibility and industrial policy combined. The commitment to reach 5% of GDP on defence by 2035 is substantial, but it's also nine years away — and Trump's erratic behaviour at the summit shows Europe can't afford to wait. His threats against Greenland and Spain, followed by declarations of "unification," prove the US can no longer be treated as a predictable partner. European nations must control their own security infrastructure — satellites, navigation, electronic warfare, deep strike — or remain dependent on an ally that may not show up. The question isn't whether Europe should take on greater defence responsibility. It's whether member states will move fast enough.