Nigeria’s manufacturing sector recorded 106.4 points in June 2026, staying in the expansion region even as the Nigerian Economic Summit Group’s Business Confidence Monitor showed a drop from 114.1 points in May 2026 and 123.6 points in June 2025. The numbers say the same old thing in cleaner language: business keeps moving, but the people doing the work are still stuck under pressure from finance shortages, power outages, high rental costs and insecurity.
The NESG’s own scale makes the hierarchy plain. Index points below 100 mean contraction. Readings above 100 mean expansion. So when the report says manufacturing, agriculture, trade and non-manufacturing all moved or remained above that line, it’s describing activity inside a system where firms can still expand while workers and small operators keep absorbing the costs of unstable power, tight credit and elevated input prices.
Who Pays for the Expansion
The report said Nigeria’s business environment expanded for the sixth consecutive month in 2026. The BCM’s current business performance index stayed unchanged at 104.6 points relative to May 2026, but that was still a sharp fall from 113.6 points in June 2025. That gap matters. The top-line language of expansion hides the squeeze underneath it, where the cost of doing business moderated but input prices remained elevated and firms still faced major constraints.
Manufacturers, according to the report, grappled with credit constraints, energy shortages, inadequate raw materials, infrastructure deficits and high rental costs. Those pressures squeezed profit margins and constrained new investments during the month. The report also said access to credit, cash flow and employment remained in expansion territory, but that doesn’t erase the fact that the apparatus of business still runs on scarce finance and unreliable infrastructure.
What Moved, and What Stayed Stuck
Performance was uneven across sectors in June 2026. Manufacturing and trade remained in expansion but registered weaker performance than the previous month. Agriculture and non-manufacturing also moved into expansion, while services contracted during the month. Trade stockpiling moved into contraction, while investment and exports remained depressed. That’s the picture: some sectors inch forward, others stall, and the people at the bottom keep carrying the weight of the imbalance.
The non-manufacturing sector rose to 106.8 points from 99.4 in May 2026, but that reading was still lower than the 120.7 points recorded in June 2025. Construction and crude petroleum posted stronger expansion than the previous month, while natural gas and other non-manufacturing activities entered expansion territory. Oil and gas services, however, remained in contraction during the month. Even here, the gains are uneven and the losses are concentrated where the system decides they’ll be.
Agriculture’s Gains, Under Pressure
Business activity in agriculture rose to 103.9 points in June 2026 from 97.5 in May 2026, moving into the expansion region, though it was down from 108.9 points in June 2025. The report said crop production, agro-allied and fishing moved into expansion. Early harvests and persistent rainfall supported increased crop output during the month. Livestock contracted, and forestry remained in contraction.
The manufacturing subsectors tell the same story in smaller pieces. Of the six subsectors that recorded expansion, only textile, apparel & footwear performed better than in May 2026. Food, beverage & tobacco, and pulp, paper & paper products posted weaker expansion than the previous month. Chemical & Pharmaceutical Products, Wood & Wood Products, and Non-Metallic Products moved into expansion during the month. Cement, plastic and rubber products remained in contraction, while basic metal, iron and steel also fell into contraction. The remaining two subsectors stayed at the neutral 100-point level.
The report’s language is careful. The reality is not. Limited access to finance, power outages, high rental costs and insecurity kept pressing on firms even as the headline numbers stayed above 100. That’s the kind of growth that leaves the structure intact and the strain distributed downward.