President Bola Tinubu says Nigerians will soon share in economic growth, even as his government’s reforms have brought soaring inflation and the country still faces widespread poverty and hunger. In his last Independence Day address, he praised those reforms as his reelection bid approaches.
Who Has the Power
Tinubu called the improvements “undeniable” and said the economy had grown by “over four per cent this year.” He credited oil and non-oil sectors, reported a decline in oil theft and said inflation had fallen “substantially from its peak.” Those are the president’s claims about the economy’s direction. The same account says his reforms also brought soaring inflation.
He said citizens would soon benefit from growth and pictured a country where young people could find work. That benefit remains a promise. Tinubu remains unpopular among young Nigerians, even as he prepares to seek another term.
Tinubu won the presidency in 2023 after campaigning on promises to build on his predecessor’s efforts and deliver democratic dividends to citizens. His administration began with a decision he announced at his inauguration in May 2023: removing the decades-long fuel subsidy. He later ended the distorted foreign exchange rate by floating the local naira, which caused a major devaluation.
The government says those measures saved the economy and gave it more money. Investors welcomed them. Yet the recorded costs include soaring inflation, while Nigeria grappled with widespread poverty and hunger. The account gives no detail about how the extra government money was spent or when citizens would feel the promised benefits.
The Cost Beneath the Claims
Economic indicators and investor approval sit alongside the daily conditions the article names: poverty, hunger and persistent security crises. The administration made the reforms; the improvements for citizens, Tinubu says, are still to come. His address presents growth, lower inflation from its peak and reduced oil theft as signs of progress, while the effects of the reforms include major currency devaluation and soaring inflation.
Nigeria’s security problems persisted in recent years. Mass kidnappings and killings spread to regions that had previously escaped the violence. The account doesn’t link those crises to any particular reform, or their resolution to Tinubu’s economic claims. They remain among the conditions facing the country as the president asks voters to judge his record.
The Ballot and the Existing Order
Tinubu is running for reelection on January 16, 2027. He faces 18 opposition candidates, though analysts predict a three-man race. The leading contenders are two candidates he defeated in 2023: Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress, described as a serial presidential candidate, and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, a former state governor whose mass appeal to young Nigerians blew the last race wide open.
The election offers a contest among presidential candidates, but the account doesn’t describe changes to the institutions making economic decisions or a direct, self-organized response from communities. It records the government’s defense of its reforms, investors’ welcome and the continued costs and crises facing Nigerians. The promised dividends are still being announced from the top.