President Bola Tinubu said Nigeria’s economy had grown by “over four per cent this year” in his last Independence Day address. He credited reforms that ended a decades-long fuel subsidy and scrapped a distorted exchange rate, calling the improvements “undeniable.”
His reelection bid is approaching. Tinubu is running on January 16, 2027.
The Reform Record
Tinubu said growth came from both the oil and non-oil sectors. Oil theft had declined, he said, and inflation had fallen “substantially from its peak.” He told citizens they would soon benefit from the expansion, adding that he envisioned a country where young people could find work.
The changes began early. At his inauguration in May 2023, Tinubu announced that he would remove the fuel subsidy. He later floated the naira, ending its distorted foreign exchange rate. The move caused a major devaluation.
His government argues that the reforms saved the economy and gave the state more money. Investors welcomed them. But inflation soared, and households carried that cost long before the figures showed any recovery.
The Political Test
Tinubu won election in 2023 after promising to build on his predecessor’s efforts to deliver democratic dividends to citizens. Three years later, Nigeria still faces deadly security crises, government corruption, widespread poverty and hunger.
The article said Tinubu remained unpopular among young Nigerians, the very group he says will soon find work. That gap between economic gains and daily life is the campaign’s central question.
Security problems continue. Mass kidnappings and killings have spread to regions that had previously escaped the violence. Growth figures offer little comfort to communities where the state can’t guarantee basic safety.
The Field
Tinubu faces 18 opposition candidates. Analysts expect a three-man race, with two leading contenders he defeated in 2023.
One is Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress, described as a serial presidential candidate. The other is Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, a former state governor whose appeal to young Nigerians blew the last race wide open.
Obi’s pull with younger voters matters because that’s where Tinubu is weakest. The president made harder, market-oriented choices; now he must persuade the people who absorbed the short-term pain.
Why This Matters: Nigeria’s election will test whether voters reward a government that removed a long-entrenched subsidy and let the currency adjust, or punish it for the inflation that followed. Tinubu’s government says the reforms saved the economy and gave the state more money, and investors welcomed them. Those are the arguments for ending distortions rather than managing them. Yet the political cost is plain in the reporting: inflation soared, young voters remain unconvinced, and insecurity has spread. From a market-minded perspective, the lesson is that reforms need visible results in jobs and safety to keep public backing. With 18 challengers and a likely three-way contest, the outcome on January 16, 2027, will signal whether the reform course holds.