Nigerian President Bola Tinubu says his reforms have given the government more money. Yet soaring inflation, widespread poverty and hunger remain among the conditions Nigerians face as he seeks reelection. Investors welcomed the reforms, which included removing the fuel subsidy and floating the naira, but inflation rose sharply after the changes.
In his last Independence Day address, Tinubu called improvements “undeniable” and said the economy had grown by “over four per cent this year.” Oil and non-oil sectors both contributed to growth, he said; oil theft had declined, and inflation had fallen “substantially from its peak.”
The address came as Tinubu’s reelection bid approached. He said citizens would soon benefit from economic growth and described a country where young people could find work. But the article said he remained unpopular among young Nigerians.
Who Gains From the Reforms
Tinubu opened his administration by announcing at his inauguration in May 2023 that he would remove the decades-long fuel subsidy. He later ended what his government described as a distorted foreign exchange rate, floating the naira and causing a major devaluation.
The government argues that the reforms saved the economy and gave it more money. Investors welcomed the measures. But the same changes also drove soaring inflation, putting the government’s stated financial gain alongside a rising cost burden for the population.
Tinubu won the presidency in 2023 after campaigning on promises to build on his predecessor’s efforts to deliver democratic dividends to citizens. In the address, he again presented growth as a future benefit, while acknowledging that citizens hadn’t yet received those gains.
Who Pays
Nigeria was grappling with widespread poverty and hunger as Tinubu promoted the economy’s growth. The article also described deadly security crises and government corruption. Those conditions stand alongside the president’s account of economic improvement, but his address offered no details about when citizens would feel the promised benefits.
Young Nigerians have been central to the political contest. Tinubu said he envisioned work for young people, while the article described him as unpopular among them. Peter Obi, a former state governor, had mass appeal to young Nigerians that blew the last race wide open.
Nigeria’s security problems persisted in recent years. Mass kidnappings and killings spread to regions previously spared the violence. The economic claims in Tinubu’s address came amid those continuing crises.
The Election and the Limits of the Claims
Tinubu is running for reelection on January 16, 2027. He faces 18 opposition candidates, though analysts predict a three-man race. The other two leading contenders are Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress, described as a serial presidential candidate, and Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
Tinubu’s case for reelection rests partly on growth, declining oil theft and inflation falling from its peak. The article also records the policy costs and unresolved conditions: the naira’s major devaluation, soaring inflation, poverty, hunger, corruption and persistent security crises. The president says citizens will soon benefit. They haven't yet received those gains, according to the account.