With less than three months until Election Day, CNN says nine states are most likely to decide control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, and the whole thing is already being run like a cash-fueled contest between rival power blocs. Democrats say the political environment is helping them as voter sentiment toward President Donald Trump sours, but they still have to win in deep-red territory while holding every one of their own seats.
Who Has the Power
CNN said Trump’s approval rating hit 34% in a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS, matching the career low he saw at the end of his first term. The same poll found that 73% of U.S. adults say he hasn’t paid attention to the country’s most important problems, and 65% say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions. CNN also said Democrats lead Republicans by 8 points on the generic ballot among registered voters, and Americans by a 10-point margin call Democrats more than Republicans “the party of change,” though nearly half say that label fits neither party.
That’s the political theater. The machinery keeps grinding.
CNN ranked the nine most likely flip seats as North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire and Georgia. It said the rankings are based on CNN reporting, conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, and analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The message is plain enough: money, consultants and polling still decide who gets heard, while everyone else gets sold a script.
North Carolina remains the state most likely to flip, with Democratic nominee Roy Cooper in a strong position in the polls and money race against Republican Michael Whatley. A Fox News poll released in late July found Cooper up nine points among North Carolina registered voters, 53% to 44%. Cooper has brought in more than three times what Whatley has raised in the entire campaign, and his cash-on-hand total is $20.7 million compared with Whatley’s $3.5 million. Cooper won the governor’s seat in two of the years Trump carried the state.
Who Gets Crushed
Maine remains near the top after Democrats scrambled to replace their nominee. Sen. Susan Collins is the most vulnerable Senate Republican this cycle and the only GOP senator running in a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Democrats quickly coalesced around former state Senate President Troy Jackson after Graham Platner exited the contest following a sexual assault allegation that he denied. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted before Jackson officially secured the nomination found Jackson at 49% among likely voters and Collins at 46%. Collins ended the second quarter with $11 million in the bank, while Jackson’s team said he had raised $3 million since formally entering the race.
Michigan gives Republicans their best chance of flipping a Senate seat. Democrats emerged from a bitter and expensive primary with Abdul El-Sayed, a former state health official, as their nominee against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. El-Sayed beat Rep. Haley Stevens by fewer than 16,000 votes, a single percentage point, after outside groups spent more than $62 million on Stevens’ behalf and AIPAC poured more than $30 million into the state to boost her. El-Sayed campaigned on Medicare for All, criticism of corporate money in politics and attacks on AIPAC. Democrats say Rogers is a weak candidate, while Republicans say he is in good shape if El-Sayed is the nominee. El-Sayed has outraised Rogers slightly, $14.5 million to $10.9 million, though Rogers had nearly $2 million more cash on hand as of mid-July, $4.4 million to $2.5 million. The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC has pledged $20 million for TV spending in the state, while the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has committed $45 million. AIPAC also said it plans to stay involved in the general election fight.
Ohio is the most likely flip among states Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to outraise Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat in January 2025. Brown has a war chest of $16.2 million compared with Husted’s $9.4 million cash on hand. Brown launched an ad criticizing Husted on Medicaid cuts and has run a trio of ads on data centers, trying to tap voter frustration with electricity cost spikes linked to the AI-powering facilities. Husted has run spots painting Brown as “way too liberal for Ohio” and criticizing him on immigration.
What They're Calling Competition
Alaska’s competitive Senate race is in fifth place, with Democrats optimistic about former Rep. Mary Peltola’s chances against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is seeking a third term. The state’s open primary on Aug. 18 will determine the four candidates on the ballot in November. A potential wildcard is another contender also named Dan Sullivan, a retired school teacher. Peltola has outraised Sullivan, $18.5 million to $11.7 million, but ended July with $4.6 million in the bank compared with Sullivan’s $7.3 million.
Iowa could become more important if Republicans flip Michigan. GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson has outpaced state Rep. Josh Turek in the money race, ending June with $6.7 million compared with Turek’s $2.4 million. The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC has upped its spending plans to $30 million, matching the $29 million promised by the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund. Democrats are hoping frustration over the GOP’s handling of the economy, including tariff impacts on farmers, will help Turek, a self-described “prairie populist.” Turek is a Paralympian who won two gold medals for the U.S. men’s wheelchair basketball team.
Texas moved up two spots as the Senate race there grew more competitive. A Fox News poll released last month found Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 48% among registered voters. The same poll showed Democrats with an enthusiasm advantage and more voters worried about Paxton’s character than about Talarico being too extreme. Talarico has raised $68.6 million since the start of his campaign and ended June with $21.5 million in the bank. Paxton has brought in $9.2 million and entered July with $1.8 million. Trump is set to host an unusual midterm convention in Dallas next month, and MAGA Inc. is sitting on $400 million of untapped funds.
New Hampshire remains at number eight as the race to replace Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen stays competitive. A UNH Survey Center poll conducted in June showed no clear leader in a hypothetical matchup between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and GOP former Sen. John E. Sununu. Pappas has raised $13.4 million to Sununu’s $3.6 million, including a $1.1 million transfer, and ended June with $5.2 million compared with Sununu’s $2.7 million. Pappas told Punchbowl that “New Hampshire’s purple. It was Kamala Harris’ closest state, and the Sununu name has been a household name for a long time since before I was born. It’s going to be incredibly tricky.”
Georgia dropped to the bottom of the list. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Senate Democrat running for reelection in a state Trump won in 2024. Ossoff has raised $77.2 million since the beginning of last year and ended the second quarter with $42.6 million cash on hand. His GOP opponent, Rep. Mike Collins, has raised $6.6 million and ended June with $2 million in the bank. A June Fox News poll showed Ossoff up 13 points over Collins among registered voters. Collins has faced scrutiny after a CNN KFile report revealed his son-in-law promoted White nationalist ideology and circulated antisemitic content online. Two Republican mayors from conservative parts of the state endorsed Ossoff last week.
The rest of the map still belongs to the same system. CNN also said Kansas, Montana and Nebraska are contests to watch. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist megachurch pastor, will face Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. In Montana, Monday is the final day to drop out of the general election contest, and the race features Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, independent Seth Bodnar and GOP nominee Kurt Alme. In Nebraska, Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank dropped out, effectively clearing the lane for independent Dan Osborn, who ran unsuccessfully in 2024, against GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts.
The names change. The donors don’t.