The battle for Senate control has crystallized around nine competitive races where Republicans face headwinds from President Donald Trump's 34% approval rating but maintain structural advantages in several key states. With Election Day less than three months away, the chamber's balance of power hinges on contests spanning from deep-red Ohio to purple New Hampshire, where candidate quality and fundraising disparities could determine whether Democrats can capitalize on voter sentiment or Republicans hold the line.
Trump's approval rating matched the career low he saw at the end of his first term, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS. The poll found 73% of U.S. adults say he hasn't paid attention to the country's most important problems, and 65% say his policies have worsened economic conditions. Democrats lead Republicans by 8 points on the generic ballot among registered voters, though nearly half of Americans say the label "party of change" fits neither party.
North Carolina's Expensive Contest
North Carolina remains the state most likely to flip, with Democratic nominee Roy Cooper holding a commanding financial advantage over Republican Michael Whatley. Cooper has brought in more than three times what Whatley has raised in the entire campaign. His cash-on-hand total is $20.7 million compared with Whatley's $3.5 million. A Fox News poll released in late July found Cooper up nine points among North Carolina registered voters, 53% to 44%. Cooper won the governor's seat in two of the years Trump carried the state, demonstrating crossover appeal that's proven difficult for Republicans to counter.
Maine's race took a dramatic turn after Democrats scrambled to replace their nominee following a sexual assault allegation. Sen. Susan Collins, the only GOP senator running in a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, now faces former state Senate President Troy Jackson. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted before Jackson officially secured the nomination found Jackson at 49% among likely voters and Collins at 46%. Collins ended the second quarter with $11 million in the bank, while Jackson's team said he had raised $3 million since formally entering the race.
Michigan's Primary Fallout
Michigan gives Republicans their best chance of flipping a Senate seat, though Democrats emerged from a bitter and expensive primary with Abdul El-Sayed as their nominee against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. El-Sayed beat Rep. Haley Stevens by fewer than 16,000 votes after outside groups spent more than $62 million on Stevens' behalf and AIPAC poured more than $30 million into the state to boost her. El-Sayed campaigned on Medicare for All, criticism of corporate money in politics and attacks on AIPAC.
Republicans say Rogers is in good shape if El-Sayed is the nominee. Rogers had nearly $2 million more cash on hand as of mid-July, $4.4 million to $2.5 million, despite El-Sayed's slight fundraising edge of $14.5 million to $10.9 million. The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC has pledged $20 million for TV spending in the state, while the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has committed $45 million. AIPAC also said it plans to stay involved in the general election fight.
Trump Country Battlegrounds
Ohio is the most likely flip among states Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to outraise Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat in January 2025. Brown has a war chest of $16.2 million compared with Husted's $9.4 million cash on hand. Brown launched an ad criticizing Husted on Medicaid cuts and has run a trio of ads on data centers, trying to tap voter frustration with electricity cost spikes linked to the AI-powering facilities. Husted has run spots painting Brown as "way too liberal for Ohio" and criticizing him on immigration.
Alaska's competitive Senate race features former Rep. Mary Peltola against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is seeking a third term. The state's open primary on Aug. 18 will determine the four candidates on the ballot in November. A potential wildcard is another contender also named Dan Sullivan, a retired school teacher. Peltola has outraised Sullivan, $18.5 million to $11.7 million, but ended July with $4.6 million in the bank compared with Sullivan's $7.3 million.
Iowa could become more important if Republicans flip Michigan. GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson has outpaced state Rep. Josh Turek in the money race, ending June with $6.7 million compared with Turek's $2.4 million. The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC has upped its spending plans to $30 million, matching the $29 million promised by the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund. Democrats are hoping frustration over the GOP's handling of the economy, including tariff impacts on farmers, will help Turek, a self-described "prairie populist" who won two gold medals for the U.S. men's wheelchair basketball team.
Southern Surprises
Texas moved up two spots as the Senate race there grew more competitive. A Fox News poll released last month found Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 48% among registered voters. The same poll showed Democrats with an enthusiasm advantage and more voters worried about Paxton's character than about Talarico being too extreme. Talarico has raised $68.6 million since the start of his campaign and ended June with $21.5 million in the bank. Paxton has brought in $9.2 million and entered July with $1.8 million. Trump is set to host an unusual midterm convention in Dallas next month, and MAGA Inc. is sitting on $400 million of untapped funds.
New Hampshire remains competitive as the race to replace Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen stays tight. A UNH Survey Center poll conducted in June showed no clear leader in a hypothetical matchup between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and GOP former Sen. John E. Sununu. Pappas has raised $13.4 million to Sununu's $3.6 million, including a $1.1 million transfer, and ended June with $5.2 million compared with Sununu's $2.7 million. Pappas told Punchbowl that "New Hampshire's purple. It was Kamala Harris' closest state, and the Sununu name has been a household name for a long time since before I was born. It's going to be incredibly tricky."
Georgia dropped to the bottom of the list. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Senate Democrat running for reelection in a state Trump won in 2024. Ossoff has raised $77.2 million since the beginning of last year and ended the second quarter with $42.6 million cash on hand. His GOP opponent, Rep. Mike Collins, has raised $6.6 million and ended June with $2 million in the bank. A June Fox News poll showed Ossoff up 13 points over Collins among registered voters. Collins has faced scrutiny after a CNN KFile report revealed his son-in-law promoted White nationalist ideology and circulated antisemitic content online. Two Republican mayors from conservative parts of the state endorsed Ossoff last week.
CNN also said Kansas, Montana and Nebraska are contests to watch. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist megachurch pastor, will face Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. In Montana, Monday is the final day to drop out of the general election contest, and the race features Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, independent Seth Bodnar and GOP nominee Kurt Alme. In Nebraska, Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank dropped out, effectively clearing the lane for independent Dan Osborn, who ran unsuccessfully in 2024, against GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts.
Why This Matters:
The Senate majority determines which party controls judicial confirmations, cabinet appointments and the legislative agenda for the final two years of Trump's term. Republicans need to hold seats in states where Trump's approval has cratered while defending against well-funded challengers who've capitalized on voter frustration with economic conditions. The fundraising disparities in races like North Carolina and Texas reveal how corporate donors and outside groups are placing bets on Democratic momentum, but Republican super PACs retain massive war chests that could reshape contests in the final stretch. Michigan's expensive primary exposed divisions within the Democratic coalition over Israel policy and progressive economics that could complicate general election appeals to moderate voters. The outcome in these nine states will shape everything from tax policy to regulatory appointments, making candidate quality and message discipline as important as national sentiment in determining which party controls the chamber's gavel.