With Election Day less than three months away, nine Senate races across the country will determine whether Democrats can capitalize on widespread dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump's economic policies and leadership — or whether Republicans can overcome a difficult political environment to hold the chamber. CNN's latest rankings show Democrats leading on the generic ballot by 8 points among registered voters, fueled by Trump's approval rating hitting 34% in a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS. That matches the career low he saw at the end of his first term.
The numbers reveal deep public concern about Trump's priorities. Seventy-three percent of U.S. adults say he hasn't paid attention to the country's most important problems, and 65% say Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions. Americans by a 10-point margin call Democrats more than Republicans "the party of change," though nearly half say that label fits neither party.
Where Democrats See Their Best Chances
North Carolina remains the state most likely to flip, with Democratic nominee Roy Cooper in a commanding position against Republican Michael Whatley. A Fox News poll released in late July found Cooper up nine points among North Carolina registered voters, 53% to 44%. Cooper's fundraising advantage is staggering — he's brought in more than three times what Whatley has raised in the entire campaign, with $20.7 million cash on hand compared with Whatley's $3.5 million. Cooper won the governor's seat in two of the years Trump carried the state, demonstrating his ability to build a coalition beyond the Democratic base.
Maine ranks near the top after Democrats scrambled to replace their nominee following a sexual assault allegation. Sen. Susan Collins is the most vulnerable Senate Republican this cycle and the only GOP senator running in a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Democrats quickly coalesced around former state Senate President Troy Jackson after Graham Platner exited the contest. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted before Jackson officially secured the nomination found Jackson at 49% among likely voters and Collins at 46%. Collins ended the second quarter with $11 million in the bank, while Jackson's team said he had raised $3 million since formally entering the race.
Texas moved up two spots as the race there grew more competitive. A Fox News poll released last month found Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 48% among registered voters. The same poll showed Democrats with an enthusiasm advantage and more voters worried about Paxton's character than about Talarico being too extreme. Talarico has raised $68.6 million since the start of his campaign and ended June with $21.5 million in the bank. Paxton has brought in $9.2 million and entered July with $1.8 million. Trump is set to host an unusual midterm convention in Dallas next month, and MAGA Inc. is sitting on $400 million of untapped funds.
Republican Targets and Tight Contests
Michigan gives Republicans their best chance of flipping a Senate seat. Democrats emerged from a bitter and expensive primary with Abdul El-Sayed, a former state health official, as their nominee against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. El-Sayed beat Rep. Haley Stevens by fewer than 16,000 votes after outside groups spent more than $62 million on Stevens' behalf and AIPAC poured more than $30 million into the state to boost her. El-Sayed campaigned on Medicare for All, criticism of corporate money in politics and attacks on AIPAC. He's outraised Rogers slightly, $14.5 million to $10.9 million, though Rogers had nearly $2 million more cash on hand as of mid-July. The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC has pledged $20 million for TV spending in the state, while the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has committed $45 million. AIPAC also said it plans to stay involved in the general election fight.
Ohio is the most likely flip among states Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to outraise Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat in January 2025. Brown has a war chest of $16.2 million compared with Husted's $9.4 million cash on hand. Brown launched an ad criticizing Husted on Medicaid cuts and has run a trio of ads on data centers, trying to tap voter frustration with electricity cost spikes linked to the AI-powering facilities. Husted has run spots painting Brown as "way too liberal for Ohio" and criticizing him on immigration.
Iowa could become more important if Republicans flip Michigan. GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson has outpaced state Rep. Josh Turek in the money race, ending June with $6.7 million compared with Turek's $2.4 million. The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC has upped its spending plans to $30 million, matching the $29 million promised by the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund. Democrats are hoping frustration over the GOP's handling of the economy, including tariff impacts on farmers, will help Turek, a self-described "prairie populist." Turek is a Paralympian who won two gold medals for the U.S. men's wheelchair basketball team.
Other Battlegrounds to Watch
Alaska's competitive Senate race sits in fifth place, with Democrats optimistic about former Rep. Mary Peltola's chances against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who's seeking a third term. The state's open primary on Aug. 18 will determine the four candidates on the ballot in November. A potential wildcard is another contender also named Dan Sullivan, a retired school teacher. Peltola has outraised Sullivan, $18.5 million to $11.7 million, but ended July with $4.6 million in the bank compared with Sullivan's $7.3 million.
New Hampshire remains at number eight as the race to replace Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen stays competitive. A UNH Survey Center poll conducted in June showed no clear leader in a hypothetical matchup between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and GOP former Sen. John E. Sununu. Pappas has raised $13.4 million to Sununu's $3.6 million and ended June with $5.2 million compared with Sununu's $2.7 million. Pappas told Punchbowl that "New Hampshire's purple. It was Kamala Harris' closest state, and the Sununu name has been a household name for a long time since before I was born. It's going to be incredibly tricky."
Georgia dropped to the bottom of the list. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Senate Democrat running for reelection in a state Trump won in 2024. Ossoff has raised $77.2 million since the beginning of last year and ended the second quarter with $42.6 million cash on hand. His GOP opponent, Rep. Mike Collins, has raised $6.6 million and ended June with $2 million in the bank. A June Fox News poll showed Ossoff up 13 points over Collins among registered voters. Collins has faced scrutiny after a CNN KFile report revealed his son-in-law promoted White nationalist ideology and circulated antisemitic content online. Two Republican mayors from conservative parts of the state endorsed Ossoff last week.
Why This Matters:
These nine Senate races will determine whether voters can hold the Trump administration accountable for economic policies that 65% of Americans say have worsened conditions. The outcome will shape whether there's oversight of presidential priorities that 73% say ignore the country's most important problems. For working families in Ohio facing electricity cost spikes from data centers, for Iowa farmers hit by tariff impacts, and for communities across the country concerned about Medicaid cuts, Senate control means the difference between a check on policies that burden ordinary Americans and two more years of unchallenged executive power. The fundraising disparities in several races — Cooper's three-to-one advantage in North Carolina, Talarico's massive lead in Texas, Ossoff's $77 million war chest in Georgia — suggest grassroots energy is translating into resources for candidates running on economic fairness and institutional accountability. Whether that energy can overcome gerrymandered maps and entrenched incumbents will determine the direction of federal policy on healthcare access, climate action, and economic regulation for the rest of Trump's term.