Hormuz Blockade: Oil Flows Recover, Ships Plunge

Non-Iranian Middle East oil flows averaged more than 24.5 million barrels per day for the week ended October 18. That edged past the 24.4 million barrels recorded for the week ended February 22, just before the war began. But the headline number has a sharp underside: about 19 commodity vessels a day crossed the Strait of Hormuz during the 10 days reported, compared with more than 100 ships daily before the war. Oil moves. The waterway remains under blockade, and shipping has fallen to a fraction of its previous traffic.

Kpler’s preliminary estimate counts Strait of Hormuz transits, Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship net exports, terminal loadings from Fujairah and Oman ports, and Red Sea exports. It excludes Iranian exports, and the figure may change depending on ship crossings. The measure tracks oil finding routes through a disrupted region, not a return to normal passage through Hormuz.

The Strait and the State

The conflict began on February 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Tehran retaliated against Gulf neighbours and oil-carrying ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Arabian Gulf. Iran has maintained a blockade of the strait since the conflict began. States and armed forces have made the route a site of attack, retaliation and restricted passage; the latest export figure doesn’t erase that control over who and what can move.

Before the war, more than 100 ships crossed the strait each day. Those vessels carried oil, fertilisers and refined products to global markets. During the 10 days covered in the report, the average fell to about 19 commodity vessels a day after Iranian attacks led shipowners to avoid the channel. The gap is not abstract: it measures commercial traffic withdrawing from a route where ships and crews face the consequences of military action.

International Maritime Organisation figures recorded 116 attacks on ships and 24 deaths through October 20, with attacks increasing recently. These figures count attacks and lives lost, not safe passage. No diplomatic promise or market rebound changes the recorded deaths.

Routes Around the Blockade

The United States plans to allow sanctioned “dark fleet,” or “shadow fleet,” vessels to transit. Investors are buying and refurbishing idle ships to carry legitimate oil. These vessels operate outside conventional shipping regulations and use deceptive practices to conceal sanctioned or high-risk cargo. The plan carries its own contradiction: the ships are described as carrying legitimate oil, while the same class of vessels operates beyond conventional rules and conceals cargo risks.

Oil prices remained elevated amid the conflict. Brent crude, the benchmark for about two-thirds of the world’s oil, was reported above $109 per barrel in the article’s opening figures and above $110 at 1:16 p.m. UAE time on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate stood at approximately $98 per barrel in the opening figures and neared $100 later in the article. Export flows have recovered on paper, but the blockade, attacks, deaths and diminished ship traffic remain part of the same account. The market can count barrels; it can’t make the passage safe.