Gulf Oil Flows Rebound Despite Iran's Hormuz Blockade

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced commercial traffic from more than 100 ships a day to about 19. Yet oil from the rest of the Middle East is flowing at prewar levels. Non-Iranian Middle East oil flows averaged more than 24.5 million barrels per day for the week ended October 18, according to preliminary Kpler data. That exceeds the 24.4 million barrels per day recorded for the week ended February 22, just before the Iran war began.

The recovery reflects workarounds, not calm. Gulf producers have found ways to move crude even as Tehran keeps one of the world's most important chokepoints under threat.

The Blockade and the Workarounds

Kpler's estimate counts Strait of Hormuz transits, net exports from ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, terminal loadings from Fujairah and Oman ports, and Red Sea exports. It excludes Iranian exports entirely, and the figure may shift with ship crossings. Gulf customers are being served by routes that avoid the most dangerous water.

About 19 commodity vessels a day crossed the strait during the 10 days reported. Before the war, more than 100 ships passed through daily, carrying oil, fertilisers and refined products to global markets. After Iranian attacks, shipowners stopped sending vessels through. Iran has blockaded the strait since the conflict began.

The United States plans to push traffic back through. Washington intends to allow sanctioned "dark fleet," or "shadow fleet," vessels to transit, while investors buy and refurbish idle ships to carry legitimate oil. These vessels operate outside conventional shipping regulations and use deceptive practices to conceal sanctioned or high-risk cargo. Their use shows how few conventional options remain when a hostile state holds a shipping lane hostage.

Iran's Maritime Campaign

The war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Tehran retaliated against its Gulf neighbours and oil-carrying ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Arabian Gulf. It didn't limit its response to military targets. It went after commercial shipping and the states that host it.

The human and commercial toll is documented. International Maritime Organisation figures showed 116 attacks on ships and 24 deaths through October 20. Attacks have risen recently, so pressure on the waterway isn't easing even as exports recover through alternative routes.

Prices Stay High

Markets haven't relaxed. Brent crude, the benchmark for about two-thirds of the world's oil, stood above $109 per barrel in the article's opening figures and above $110 at 1:16 p.m. UAE time on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate stood at approximately $98 per barrel in the opening figures and neared $100 later in the article.

The barrels are moving, but the risk premium isn't going away. Elevated prices reflect a market that doesn't trust the workarounds to hold, and caution is warranted. Rerouted flows depend on terminals and sea lanes within reach of the same Iranian forces that closed the strait.

Why This Matters: The Gulf's return to prewar export volumes without reopening Hormuz shows how resilient regional producers have become, but it also reveals how much leverage Iran has gained by threatening one waterway. Crude above $110 a barrel costs consumers worldwide, and reliance on shadow-fleet tankers brings its own risks because those vessels operate outside normal oversight. With 116 attacks on ships and 24 deaths recorded, and attacks rising, Tehran's willingness to target civilian shipping remains the central strategic fact. Any settlement that leaves Iran able to close the strait on demand would leave global energy security dependent on the restraint of a government that has already shown little.