Hormuz Blockade Disrupts Gulf Oil Routes After US-Israel Attacks

About 19 commodity vessels a day crossed the Strait of Hormuz during the 10 days reported, compared with more than 100 ships daily before the war began with US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Yet non-Iranian Middle East oil flows averaged more than 24.5 million barrels per day, above the prewar weekly level, preliminary Kpler data show.

Oil continues to move through several routes, even as shipping through the strait remains sharply reduced. Iran has blockaded the strait since the conflict began, and its attacks prompted shipowners to avoid the channel. The vessels that did cross carried oil, fertilisers and refined products to global markets.

Oil flows and alternative routes

For the week ended October 18, non-Iranian Middle East oil flows averaged more than 24.5 million barrels per day. That compares with 24.4 million barrels per day for the week ended February 22, just before the Iran war began. Kpler’s estimate remains preliminary and could change based on ship crossings.

The calculation counts Strait of Hormuz transits, Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship net exports, terminal loadings from Fujairah and Oman ports, and Red Sea exports. It excludes Iranian exports. So the measure tracks oil flows from outside Iran, including shipments using routes and loading points beyond the strait.

These figures compare weekly averages. They don't show that shipping through Hormuz has returned to its prewar level. Daily crossings remain far below the more than 100 ships a day recorded before the war.

Attacks and shipping risks

The conflict began on February 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Tehran retaliated against Gulf neighbours and oil-carrying ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Arabian Gulf.

International Maritime Organisation figures recorded 116 attacks on ships and 24 deaths through October 20. The article says attacks have increased recently. Those figures capture the human toll as well as disruption to a channel that carries oil, fertilisers and refined products to global markets.

Oil prices stayed elevated during the conflict. Brent crude, a benchmark for about two-thirds of the world’s oil, stood above $109 per barrel in the article’s opening figures and above $110 at 1:16 p.m. UAE time on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate was approximately $98 per barrel in the opening figures and nearing $100 later in the article.

US plan for sanctioned vessels

The United States plans to let sanctioned “dark fleet,” or “shadow fleet,” vessels transit. According to the article, investors are buying idle ships and refurbishing them to carry legitimate oil.

These vessels operate outside conventional shipping regulations and use deceptive practices to hide sanctioned or high-risk cargo. Their planned transit adds another element to shifting oil routes, as shipowners avoid the strait and flows depend on a wider mix of crossings, ship-to-ship transfers, ports and Red Sea exports.