Iran's Hormuz Attacks Reshape Gulf Oil Routes

Non-Iranian Middle East oil flows averaged more than 24.5 million barrels per day in the week ended October 18. That exceeded the 24.4 million barrels per day recorded for the week ended February 22, just before the war began, according to preliminary Kpler data. The recovery came even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained far below its prewar level, after Iranian attacks prompted shipowners to avoid the channel.

The estimate covers several routes and shipping measures, not only vessels crossing Hormuz. It counts Strait of Hormuz transits, Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship net exports, terminal loadings from Fujairah and Oman ports, and Red Sea exports. Iranian exports aren’t included, and the preliminary estimate may change depending on ship crossings.

Hormuz Traffic and Attacks

About 19 commodity vessels a day crossed the Strait of Hormuz during the 10 days reported. Before the war, more than 100 ships crossed daily. The vessels carried oil, fertilisers and refined products to global markets. The channel has remained under an Iranian blockade since the conflict began.

The conflict began on February 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Tehran retaliated against Gulf neighbours and oil-carrying ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Arabian Gulf. The figures show oil flows recovering across a broader set of routes, while shipping through the strait remains sharply reduced.

International Maritime Organisation figures recorded 116 attacks on ships and 24 deaths through October 20. The figures cited in the report show that attacks have increased recently. Available data doesn’t identify the perpetrators of each attack or provide details about individual incidents.

Alternative Routes and Shadow Fleet

The United States plans to allow sanctioned “dark fleet,” also called “shadow fleet,” vessels to transit. Investors are buying and refurbishing idle ships to carry legitimate oil, according to the report. Such vessels operate outside conventional shipping regulations and use deceptive practices to conceal sanctioned or high-risk cargo.

The planned transit allowance concerns vessels operating outside conventional shipping regulations, while the flow figures offer a wider measure of exports that excludes Iranian oil. The estimate counts ship-to-ship net exports in the Gulf of Oman and loadings at Fujairah and Oman ports, along with Strait transits and Red Sea exports. Kpler’s preliminary figure may change as further ship crossings affect the estimate.

Prices Remain Elevated

Oil prices remained elevated during the conflict. Brent crude, the benchmark for about two-thirds of the world's oil, was reported above $109 per barrel in the article's opening figures and above $110 at 1:16 p.m. UAE time on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate stood at approximately $98 per barrel in the opening figures and neared $100 later in the article.

The export comparison and shipping data measure different aspects of the disruption. Non-Iranian flows exceeded the prewar comparison in the week ended October 18, while daily vessel crossings through Hormuz remained at about 19 during the 10 days reported, against more than 100 before the war. Kpler cautions that the flow estimate is preliminary and may change with ship crossings.