The government's migration strategy will target 225,000 net arrivals in 2027-28, aligning with Treasury forecasts, even as opposition ranks fracture over how aggressively to cut visa programs. Senior Liberal sources moved quickly to distance the shadow cabinet from Senator Andrew Bragg's suggestion that net migration below 180,000 is "achievable" through reductions to backpackers and international students.
Coalition Policy Confusion
Speaking at the National Press Club, Senator Bragg outlined a figure he said would close the housing "shortfall" and prove "manageable" for infrastructure. He proposed "modest reductions in international students, working holiday-makers and post-study work visas." But several senior opposition sources, including frontbenchers, confirmed the shadow cabinet hasn't decided which visa programs would face cuts. One senior Liberal was blunt: "It should be interpreted as by Bragg for Bragg, and it is not a formal policy announcement."
The confusion underscores the difficulty of matching migration policy to housing supply without alienating key economic stakeholders. The Coalition's policy, launched by Angus Taylor this year, would set annual net migration targets based on housing completions from the previous year, starting with one house per person to address years of undersupply. An opposition spokesperson said details would be released closer to the election when updated housing figures are available.
Senator Bragg's analysis suggested this formula would average fewer than 180,000 over four years, though he clarified this wasn't a fixed target and would shift based on housing completions in future budgets.
Government's Approach
The government's migration plan remains unfinished. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke will eventually announce it at the National Press Club. Senior sources say it will aim to hit Treasury's net migration forecasts of 225,000 in 2027-28. Actual numbers have consistently overshot Treasury projections, but the government plans tighter control over backpackers, rejected refugee applicants, and possibly family visa applicants.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson last week clarified her party's permanent visa target is 130,000, a cut of just over 50,000 from current levels. She's refused to commit to a net migration figure. Hanson named international students and family visas as possible priorities for cuts while suggesting backpackers would still be allowed. She's also pointed to roughly 75,000 people who've "overstayed" their visas, a Department of Home Affairs estimate of those with no legal right to remain.
Bragg's Broader Critique
Senator Bragg didn't limit himself to migration. He accused the government of "communism" and "state-sanctioned corruption" for supporting compulsory superannuation, calling the Superannuation Guarantee "a loss of liberty" that "takes 12 per cent from people's wages to vest them with managers they will never meet." He questioned the system's value: "What was the point if there is no public finance benefit and minimal personal benefit?"
He also said Australia was "sick" and that his own party had "contributed" to the country's "malaise." Leaders over the past two decades had been "indolent," including "the custodians of liberalism" in his own party. "I get that people are over the two-party system and it's a tough ask to say to Australians, 'We buggered it up, but please vote for us again,'" he said. "As someone who was a backbencher in the Morrison government, I am sorry I didn't do more to stop the madness."
Tax and Construction Proposals
On taxation, Senator Bragg proposed taxing multinational companies, including social media firms, "at the point they make revenue" rather than relying on international co-operation to prevent profit shifting. "Australia must be prepared to fight this, not immobilised by fear of President Trump," he said. "We would generate billions of dollars from this initiative … The organisations doing the most damage in our society, they make the most power, and frankly pay bugger-all tax."
He also expanded on his proposal to slash the National Construction Code from over 2,000 pages to eighty, dismissing concerns that homes without energy efficiency standards would be unliveable. "It just has basic amenity standards. So it's a house. It won't fall down, it's secure, it won't burn down, but it doesn't have anything else in it. It's a simple house," he said, adding that houses would be required to have windows. "Maslow's hierarchy dictates to you that you need to build more cheap housing just to get the thing moving. And if people want optional extras, that's up to them."
Why This Matters:
The migration debate exposes fundamental tensions between housing supply, economic growth, and fiscal sustainability. Treasury's 225,000 net migration forecast for 2027-28 represents a significant intake at a time when housing completions haven't kept pace with population growth. The government's inability to control visa overstays and the opposition's reluctance to specify which programs would face cuts both suggest the political difficulty of reducing migration without harming sectors dependent on foreign workers and students. International education alone contributes billions to the economy. The Coalition's housing-linked formula offers market discipline but requires construction industry performance that recent history suggests is uncertain. Meanwhile, Senator Bragg's attacks on compulsory superannuation and his call for simpler building codes reflect broader center-right concerns about regulatory overreach and individual choice. His willingness to tax multinational tech companies at the point of revenue, however, signals a departure from traditional free-market orthodoxy, suggesting both major parties are searching for new approaches to fiscal challenges and voter discontent.