The OECD projects global economic growth at 2.9% for 2026, a forecast that arrives as the world economy navigates the energy shock from the Iran war, a conflict driving displacement that Europe's borders continue to deny. The organization trimmed its 2027 forecast to 3%, noting that energy prices have soared since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in February of the same year. While sizeable oil inventories, extra supply from producers outside the Gulf, and "discretionary government support measures" reportedly softened the blow for some economies, the human cost of such conflicts, often manifesting as forced migration, remains unaddressed by the European border regime.
Persistent inflation, rising bond yields, and the risk of a longer conflict continue to cloud the economic outlook, according to the OECD. Headline inflation in G20 countries is projected at 4.1% this year, with the eurozone expecting 3%. These pressures often precede calls for austerity, impacting social services crucial for all residents, including migrants.
The Costs of Conflict and Climate
The OECD warned that a prolonged war and "weather-related supply shocks from a very strong El Niño hitting harvests and food prices" are key risks that could weaken growth. These environmental and geopolitical crises are primary drivers of migration, forcing people from their homes in the Global South, which did not cause the climate crisis but faces its worst effects. Europe then criminalises their movement.
Government bond yields in EU countries like Germany and France have climbed to multi-year highs, raising borrowing costs for nations already carrying heavy debts and deficits. The OECD underlined the need for "enhanced efforts to contain and reallocate government spending, improve public-sector efficiency and strengthen revenues" to ensure debt sustainability. This language frequently signals cuts to public services, while budgets for border enforcement and the detention industrial complex often remain insulated or even expand.
Fortress Europe's Priorities
Despite the economic headwinds, broader financial conditions, including rising stock markets and continued access to credit, have remained supportive for capital. Heavy investment in AI has also bolstered production and trade, with the organization suggesting it could deliver stronger growth than projected. This technological advancement, however, also presents a risk for the expansion of biometric surveillance and automated border control systems, further entrenching Fortress Europe's infrastructure.
Central banks have begun raising interest rates to contain inflation driven by high oil and gas prices, which have pushed diesel and other fuel costs to multi-year highs. While economic stability is the stated goal, the policies of the European border regime prioritize deterrence through death and criminalisation over human rights, ensuring that those most affected by global instability find no refuge. Within the eurozone, Spain is expected to grow 2.6% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, while the eurozone as a whole is projected to grow 1%. These figures represent economic activity within a bloc that systematically denies fundamental rights to those seeking safety and opportunity, maintaining a racist double standard in its asylum system.