Claudio Descalzi, the CEO of Italian state-controlled group Eni, said the global oil market will break out of its roughly $80-$100 range by the first quarter of 2027 at the latest if the Middle East conflict continues. That’s the real story here: a state-controlled energy giant warning that war, stockpiles, and fragile supply routes are holding the market together for now, while ordinary people sit downstream from the price shocks.
Who Pays When the Supply Game Tightens
Descalzi said the release of stockpiles has helped keep crude prices largely within that range so far. He also said the strategy carries growing risks because global reserves are finite. That’s the apparatus at work: burn through the cushion now, and the bill lands later, on everyone who needs fuel, transport, heat, and electricity to keep life moving.
He said global oil stocks have fallen by an average 3.8 million barrels per day, accelerating to 4.6 million bpd in May, as a result of disruption linked to the Iran war that began at the end of February. Those numbers point to a system that treats war as a market variable and scarcity as a management tool. The people at the bottom don’t get to vote on that arrangement. They just absorb the consequences.
Descalzi said, “The long-term solution is greater energy security through diversification of supply sources and routes.” He said countries should focus on producers in North and sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia, while reducing dependence on controlled maritime passages. The language sounds orderly enough, but it’s still a map of extraction and rerouting, with powerful states and firms trying to secure their own flows while the rest of the world gets told this is stability.
The Corporate State Speaks Softly
Eni isn’t some neutral observer standing outside the machine. Descalzi said Eni has limited exposure to the Middle East, while most of its upstream production is in Africa and Latin America. That detail matters. The company’s own position sits inside the same global hierarchy it’s describing, with production spread across regions that have long been treated as supply zones for distant markets and distant profits.
He also said power demand generated by artificial intelligence technologies and the rapid expansion of data centres has increased the urgency of ensuring security of energy supply. So the demand from new digital infrastructure, built and expanded by corporate power, adds another layer of pressure to an already strained system. More servers, more electricity, more extraction, more anxiety about keeping the whole thing fed.
What the Market Calls Security
Descalzi’s warning rests on a simple fact: the current balance is temporary. He said the market will break out of its range by early 2027 at the latest if the Middle East conflict continues. That’s not a promise of order. It’s a confession that the present setup depends on finite reserves, disrupted flows, and the constant shuffling of supply from one region to another.
The whole arrangement is built on control. Controlled maritime passages, state-backed producers, stockpile releases, and corporate exposure calculations all serve the same end: keeping energy moving through a system designed from the top down. The people who live with the price spikes, the shortages, and the instability don’t get a seat at that table. They get the consequences.
Descalzi’s comments lay out the logic plainly enough. The market can be managed for a while. The reserves can be drained. The routes can be diversified. But the pressure doesn’t disappear. It just gets pushed around until the next rupture hits.