Luke Herdegen has claimed the Secret Harbour by-election in Western Australia, handing One Nation another gain after a massive swing against Labor in an area it has held for decades. The result landed hard in Perth’s south, where Labor and Liberal were both left licking their wounds after the bruising defeat.
Who Holds the Levers
The seat fell after the retirement of long-serving MP Paul Papalia, who stepped aside to care for a sick family member. That vacancy opened the door for a contest that became a referendum on the parties that claim to run the place, with the campaign stretching from red bin collections to the popularity of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and One Nation’s national leader, Pauline Hanson. The machinery of electoral politics rolled in, spent heavily, and still couldn’t stop the shift.
Labor is understood to have spent about $400,000 on the campaign, including flooding social media with content and sending more than 200,000 pieces of mail. That kind of money buys noise, not trust. Tanya Plibersek said, "However, it is important that all of us have a good look at the results here and think about what more we need to do," in comments to Insiders. The language is familiar. The system loses, then promises to reflect.
Who Pays for the Failure
WA Premier Roger Cook said Labor would listen to the result, calling it "a reminder that Western Australians are doing it tough." He said, "It's a reminder of how important it is we meet Western Australians where they are, and have the conversations to ensure that our community values are reflected in everything that we do." That’s the language of managed concern, delivered after the damage is done.
The people in Secret Harbour were the ones living with the consequences while the parties measured the fallout. Herdegen said, "People have had enough. They definitely felt neglected in the outer-southern suburbs." He added, "They certainly sent a message to Canberra as well and Anthony Albanese that they're unhappy." The vote came from below, not from the conference rooms and campaign war chests above.
Herdegen said the first issue to tackle was returning weekly bin collections to the area, after they were cut back to fortnightly with the rollout of FOGO bins. A basic service became a political fault line. That’s how thin the line is between daily life and the decisions made over people’s heads.
What the Parties Call a Lesson
Federal One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce said the win showed Hanson deserved credit for changing the nature of politics. He said, "We're going to continue to make sure that we improve so that we gain the respect of the people of Western Australia, the people of Victoria … people of New South Wales and the people of Australia." The party is reading the result as momentum, not accident.
Albanese, speaking at Labor’s state conference in Brisbane, did not directly address the loss but warned of "hard-right populists … peddling politics that is dangerous, divisive and downright dishonest." He said, "Parties like One Nation have no serious answers to problems which are there; their own divisions and disagreements are now showing through." He added, "The best way to defeat this coalition of chaos is to give Australians real hope for the better future for their country, for their families and, of course, for themselves, to stay positive, to be the party with the ideas that will make people's lives better."
Outgoing federal Liberal MP Jonno Duniam said the result was "not a good outcome for my party, and it's one that we need to look hard at and rectify." He said he shared the feelings of his colleague Andrew Hastie, who earlier in the week criticised State Liberal leader Basil Zempilas for saying a Labor loss would be a win for his party, regardless of the actual winner. Duniam said, "We shouldn't be talking about being open-minded to work with particular other parties or anything like that." He added, "We should be asking people to vote for us."
Zempilas rejected the idea that his party had run a weak campaign, saying "One Nation would not have won" without Liberal voters directing their preferences to the minor party. He said, "The game has changed," and added, "And if the game has changed, that means the way you win the game has also changed." He said, "And as I say, my job as WA Liberal leader is to put the WA Liberal team in the best position for electoral success."
On Sunday afternoon, Hastie emailed supporters asking for donations to hit a target of $186,000 in September, saying he feared Labor could win his own seat of Canning because of divided support. He wrote, "But I'm not interested in making excuses. I'm only interested in winning and delivering the changes you and I believe Australia needs."
Labor’s candidate, Georgia Tree, formally conceded defeat on Sunday morning. She said it had been an "honour to fight for my community" and highlighted promises made by the party during the campaign. She wrote, "Make no mistake — all of this will be delivered by the Cook Labor government because of WA Labor and because of our campaign and our fight for Secret Harbour." She also wrote, "Congratulations to Luke Herdegen. It is a great honour to represent your community in Parliament and it is a massive responsibility."
Herdegen said the result was a loss for Labor but not for Tree personally and urged "anyone who's a supporter of me, show Georgia some love." He said, "This is One Nation heartland now," pointing to nearby seats like Roger Cook’s electorate of Kwinana now being under threat. He said, "People have had enough. They definitely felt neglected in the outer-southern suburbs." He added, "They certainly sent a message to Canberra as well and Anthony Albanese that they're unhappy."
A separate poll from The Australian Financial Review, Redbridge Group and Accent Research found that cost of living remained the top issue for voters at 75 per cent, followed by healthcare at 37 per cent and housing affordability at 33 per cent. Immigration had crept into the top four issues that most worry voters, while concern about government debt had also started to increase after revelations it recently broke through the $1 trillion mark. On cost of living, healthcare and housing affordability, Labor was the preferred manager. The parties keep calling that competence. The numbers say people are still carrying the weight.