Hamas has not disarmed. One year after the October 10, 2025, ceasefire, the group still holds dominant power in roughly 40 percent of Gaza outside Israeli military control, and effectively remains in charge of security there. That fact lies at the heart of why the truce’s longer-term promises haven’t been kept.
The agreement did deliver some of what it promised. Three days after the ceasefire was announced, Hamas freed the 20 remaining living hostages seized in the October 7, 2023, attack, the deadliest day in Israel’s history. The deal also brought back all remaining hostages. The attack’s third anniversary passed this week. Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people and abducted 251 that day.
The ceasefire’s first anniversary also marked a year without Hamas rocket attacks on Israel. Near-constant Israeli bombardment depleted the group’s missile inventory. The US military set up a command post near the Gaza border with foreign allies to monitor the truce.
The Disarmament Impasse
US President Donald Trump and Arab allies brokered the 20-point agreement. It called for Hamas to hand power to a committee of Palestinian administrators vetted by the Board of Peace, which Trump chairs. In July, Hamas announced it was disbanding its governing body and handing Gaza’s administration to the US-blessed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. But the militants left the civil service intact. Committee head Ali Shaath, a technocrat, has kept a low profile.
The disarmament track has stalled, too. Hamas elected Khalil al-Hayya as its new leader in July, then said it would give up its weapons. Trump hailed the move as a breakthrough. The deal called for disarmament “in a gradual, sequential and time-bound manner” tied to a phased Israeli withdrawal. Hamas confirmed for the first time that it had agreed to disarm, but said the step depended on Israel halting its strikes and withdrawing from Gaza.
Israel wants the order reversed. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has demanded verifiable decommissioning of all weapons, down to individual guns, and said Israel wouldn’t withdraw from any part of Gaza until Hamas is completely disarmed. Israel has tied progress on other issues to that demand. Hamas and the Trump administration say both steps should happen at the same time. On the October 7 attack’s anniversary, Netanyahu said 4,000 of 6,000 “Hamas monsters” had been killed.
Territory, Strikes and the Cost to Civilians
The ceasefire allowed Israeli forces to remain in 53 percent of Gaza. A year later, they control about 70 percent, according to official accounts, and Israel has pushed the so-called yellow Line of Control west toward the Mediterranean. Israel has also barred the new Palestinian administration from entering Gaza via Egypt.
Israel has cut back its attacks, but still strikes Gaza nearly every day. It has regularly targeted people it accused of violating the ceasefire, approaching the yellow line or taking part in the October 7 attack. Those strikes have often killed civilians. The Gaza Health Ministry, part of the Hamas-run government, says Israeli strikes have killed more than 1,400 Palestinians since the truce took effect, and also gives the figure as about 1,450. UN agencies consider the ministry’s figures generally reliable, though it doesn’t distinguish civilians from militants. Sporadic attacks have killed five Israeli soldiers in Gaza during the same period.
The human cost is plain on the ground. In Jabaliya, Abdullah Abu Zubaida’s family lives in a shelter built from the debris of their house. “When the ceasefire began last October, we expected the war to halt, assassinations to cease, and aid to flow in,” he said. “None of that has happened.” Ne’man Abu Jarad, displaced from Beit Lahia to Khan Younis, lives in a tent with his five daughters. “The ceasefire is merely nominal, ink on paper,” he said.
A Reconstruction That Hasn’t Begun
The International Stabilization Force, announced in February, still hasn’t materialized. Indonesia pledged the largest contingent, 8,000 soldiers, but put its plans on hold last spring as the world’s focus shifted to the Iran war.
Money hasn’t moved, either. Trump promised $10 billion in US funding to the Board of Peace in January. Gulf allies pledged more. No money is known to have reached Gaza reconstruction. In September, the board proposed a $2.45 billion recovery plan intended to span six months. Almost nothing has been rebuilt.
Politics in Israel add pressure. Netanyahu hardened his stance over the summer, openly defying Trump, his most important ally, ahead of the October 27 election. Opponents accuse him of being soft on Hamas over the security and intelligence failures that preceded October 7. That leaves him little room for even minor compromises on Gaza until a new government forms, a process that could take months.
Why This Matters: The ceasefire’s central flaw is a sequencing dispute neither side has resolved: Hamas wants Israel to withdraw before it disarms, and Israel won’t withdraw while Hamas keeps its weapons. Meanwhile, an armed group that has declared its intent to destroy Israel retains control over security in about 40 percent of Gaza, and the international force meant to fill the vacuum hasn’t arrived. Two million Palestinians are caught in the gap, sheltering in tents and rubble. From a security perspective, any Israeli pullback without verified disarmament risks giving Hamas the chance to rebuild. The base article’s own assessment is that Hamas is weakened but still in power, and that a return to fighting can’t be ruled out.