On the first anniversary of the October 10, 2025, ceasefire, Hamas remains the dominant power in roughly 40 percent of Gaza and has not disarmed, while Israel controls about 70 percent, according to official accounts. The agreement halted major military operations, returned the remaining hostages and increased humanitarian access, but its central security and governance provisions remain incomplete.
Hamas Still Holds Power
Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people and abducted 251 in the October 7, 2023, attack that ignited the war. Three days after the ceasefire was announced, Hamas freed the 20 remaining living hostages seized in the attack. The agreement also led to the return of all remaining hostages.
The ceasefire anniversary marked a year without Hamas rocket attacks on Israel. Near-constant Israeli bombardment depleted the group’s missile inventory and damaged or destroyed the vast majority of buildings in Gaza. A US military command post, alongside foreign allies, was established near the Gaza border to monitor the truce.
Hamas announced in July that it was disbanding its governing body and handing Gaza’s administration to the US-blessed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. The militants officially dissolved their government but left the civil service intact. They remain the dominant power in the part of Gaza not controlled by the Israeli military, and Hamas effectively remains in charge of security. Technocrat Ali Shaath, appointed head of the committee, has kept a low profile.
The agreement called for Hamas to transfer power to a committee of Palestinian administrators vetted by the Board of Peace, chaired by US President Donald Trump and tasked with implementing the ceasefire. Israel has barred the new Palestinian administration from entering Gaza via Egypt.
Disarmament and Israeli Control
Hamas hasn't disarmed. In July, Trump announced a deal requiring disarmament “in a gradual, sequential and time-bound manner” linked to an Israeli withdrawal in phases. Hamas confirmed for the first time that it had agreed to disarm, while tying the step to Israel halting its strikes and withdrawing from Gaza. Israel has been sceptical, and Netanyahu has demanded verifiable decommissioning of all weapons down to individual guns.
Israel has tied progress on other issues to Hamas’ complete disarmament, while Hamas and the Trump administration say the steps should happen simultaneously. Days after the July deal was announced, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel wouldn't withdraw from any part of Gaza until Hamas was completely disarmed, explicitly rejecting the agreement Trump had announced.
Under the ceasefire, Israeli forces could remain in 53 percent of Gaza. A year later, they control about 70 percent, according to official accounts, and have pushed the so-called yellow Line of Control westward toward the Mediterranean Sea. Israel continues near-daily strikes on Gaza, including against people it accused of violating the ceasefire, approaching the yellow line or taking part in the October 7 attack. Those strikes have often killed civilians.
The Gaza Health Ministry says Israeli strikes have killed about 1,450 Palestinians since the ceasefire took effect. The ministry is part of the Hamas-run government, keeps detailed records and is considered generally reliable by UN agencies and independent experts, but it doesn't distinguish civilians from militants. It says women and children make up around half of those killed. Sporadic attacks have killed five Israeli soldiers in Gaza during the same period.
Reconstruction Remains Stalled
The International Stabilization Force announced in February still hasn't materialized. Indonesia, which pledged the largest contingent at 8,000 soldiers, put its plans on hold last spring as the world’s focus shifted to the Iran war.
The Board of Peace includes former British prime minister Tony Blair and Bulgarian diplomat Nickolay Mladenov, who serves as “Gaza high representative.” Trump promised $10 billion in US funding to the board in January. Gulf allies have pledged additional funds, but no money is known to have reached Gaza reconstruction. In September, the board proposed a $2.45 billion recovery plan intended to span over six months.
Almost nothing has been rebuilt. Most of Gaza’s 2 million Palestinians shelter in rodent-infested tent camps, the rubble of former neighborhoods or war-damaged buildings at risk of collapse. In Jabaliya, Abdullah Abu Zubaida’s family lives in a makeshift shelter built from the debris of their house. “When the ceasefire began last October, we expected the war to halt, assassinations to cease, and aid to flow in,” he said. “None of that has happened.”
Ne’man Abu Jarad and his family, displaced from Beit Lahia to Khan Younis, have no clear path home and continue to live in tents with their five daughters. “The ceasefire is merely nominal, ink on paper,” Abu Jarad said. Hamas is weakened but remains in power, and a return to fighting can't be ruled out.