Uganda’s diplomat Olara Otunnu picked up three additional "encourage" votes in the second informal straw poll for the next United Nations Secretary-General, a private ballot held on August 21 by the 15-member Security Council. The numbers shifted after his pitch to the UN General Assembly, but the real machinery stayed in place: a small council, voting in secret, deciding who gets to move forward toward the top post in a 193-member body.
Otunnu finished with five "encourage" votes, five "discourage" votes and five "no opinion" ballots. In July’s first round, he had two "encourage" votes, eight "discourage" votes and five "no opinion" responses. The change was sharp. So was the structure around it. No candidate had yet reached the nine affirmative votes required under Article 27 of the UN Charter to secure the Security Council's recommendation, which means the gate still sits in the hands of a narrow council before the broader General Assembly gets its formal turn.
Who Holds the Gate
Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett moved into first place with eight "encourage," three "discourage" and four "no opinion" votes, narrowly displacing former frontrunner Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, who finished second with seven "encourage," four "discourage" and four "no opinion" ballots. Argentina’s Rafael Grossi tied Grynspan with seven "encourage" votes, but his "discourage" count rose to six. Senegal’s Macky Sall had six "encourage" and seven "discourage" votes. Ecuador’s María Fernanda Espinosa received four "encourage" votes, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet saw her support fall to two "encourage" votes, and Ecuador's Ivonne A-Baki, a late entrant, received no encouraging ballots.
Those numbers tell the story of a hierarchy dressed up as procedure. The candidates can court support, make speeches, and wait for the council’s mood to shift, but the decisive power remains concentrated in a room with 15 seats. The 193-member General Assembly waits downstream, while the Security Council keeps the first and most important veto over the field.
Otunnu, after the council released the outcome, said: "I have received from the President of the Security Council, the official outcome of the second straw ballot conducted today by the Security Council," Otunnu said. "I am grateful to all members of the Security Council. I look forward to continued engagement with members of the Security Council and all Member States of the United Nations."
The Numbers Behind the Ceremony
Daniel Forti, head of UN affairs at the International Crisis Group, said: “It is no surprise that some of the candidates have gained or lost ground, particularly as the P5 begin to express their preferences more openly,” and added: “No candidate has commanded a significant majority of Council members after two polls, which may convince other potential candidates that they now have an opportunity to jump into the race.”
That’s the language of managed competition. The P5’s preferences matter, the council’s private ballots matter, and everyone else gets to watch the choreography from the outside. The process may be called informal, but the consequences are anything but. It sorts the field, narrows the options, and keeps the final recommendation inside the same institutional cage.
Denmark’s Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, who holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council, confirmed that candidate nominations and General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock had been formally notified of the results. The Security Council will hold further secret ballots before recommending a single nominee to the 193-member General Assembly for formal appointment before Guterres's term ends on December 31.
What Comes Next
Further secret ballots are coming. A single nominee will eventually be pushed toward the General Assembly for formal appointment. The calendar is already set around Guterres's term ending on December 31. The machinery keeps moving, and the people most affected by global decisions still don’t get a direct hand on the lever.
The second straw poll showed movement, but not liberation from the setup. Otunnu gained ground. Others slipped. The council kept control. The rest of the United Nations remains on the outside, waiting for the next round of secret ballots to tell them which name the powerful will permit to rise.