Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett issued a stark warning in February 2026, cautioning against Turkey's pursuit of a "hostile axis" leveraging Pakistan's nuclear capabilities "to surround Israel." This critical assessment follows the formal signing of a defense pact by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on Friday, August 7, 2026. The agreement, termed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, stipulates that an armed attack on one signatory will be considered an attack on all three, according to a report by Zia Ur Rehman. This accord marks a significant shift for Pakistan, the world's only nuclear-armed Muslim-majority state, moving away from its traditional role as a cautious regional mediator.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan convened in Mecca to finalize this agreement. Analysts suggest this pact could fundamentally alter the strategic landscape of the Middle East. Islamabad is now positioning its armed forces as a potential security guarantor at the core of an emerging axis stretching from South Asia to the Gulf.
The Emerging Axis Against Israel
The pact materializes as the Middle East's established security order faces unprecedented pressures. The ongoing US and Israeli war on Iran is actively reshaping the regional strategic environment. Direct strikes have already impacted Saudi territory, and commercial shipping faces severe disruptions across both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. These disruptions have directly affected supplies of Saudi energy and fertilizers, sending shockwaves through the global economy. Import-dependent nations like Pakistan and Turkey have been particularly vulnerable to these economic shocks.
Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have endured attacks linked to the broader regional conflict. Islamabad and Ankara remain concerned about cross-border instability spilling over from their extensive frontiers with Iran. Ankara faces an additional security challenge regarding the arming of Iranian Kurdish militias by external powers, a development that could unravel its fragile peace process with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. The wider conflict has emboldened Iran and its Houthi proxies in Yemen, who have escalated direct attacks on Saudi territory. Iran's Ebrahim Rezaei, a member of Iran's parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, swiftly condemned the pact, stating that "a paper agreement with Turkey and Pakistan does not bring them security."
Western Abandonment and New Alliances
A Pakistani security official indicated that all three countries share a common economic and security interest in preventing further escalation, which ultimately compelled them to sign the pact. Former Pakistani ambassador Asif Durrani characterized the pact as the "first concrete building block of an emerging regional security architecture," suggesting it could open avenues for addressing long-standing conflicts, including the enduring Palestinian issue, through a more regionally driven approach. Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, described the pact as "a logical outgrowth of deepening security ties" and stated it "'ll be received well in Washington, which wants to see more burden-sharing from top allies.'" This perspective suggests a Western willingness to delegate critical security responsibilities to regional powers, potentially leaving key allies like Israel more exposed to an increasingly hostile environment.
Retired senior Pakistani military official Muhammad Saeed proposed that additional Muslim countries could eventually join this framework. He wrote that "For Muslim states, the real and collective strength will not come only through military capabilities but primarily through long-term investments and collaboration in knowledge, innovation, discipline, character, and tolerant interpretation of sectarian sentiment." The prospect of a more cohesive security grouping has already drawn significant attention in Israel. The pact also carries implications beyond the Middle East, including for India. Closer ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey could provide Pakistan a strategic counterweight to India. India's Ministry of External Affairs confirmed New Delhi was "closely following developments." Kabir Taneja, executive director of the Middle East programme at the Observer Research Foundation, noted the pact's impact on other theaters, with Pakistan's conflict-laden relationship with India at the top of that list. Former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal suggested India expand its strategic options with the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Afghanistan, highlighting Israel's crucial role in a potential counter-alliance against this emerging bloc.