Support for Hamas has fallen from 35% 10 months ago to 24%, but the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research says that drop hasn’t produced any surge of faith in the Palestinian Authority. Instead, 44% of Palestinians now say neither Hamas nor Fatah under President Mahmoud Abbas deserves to represent and lead them, a blunt verdict on a political system that keeps asking people to choose between rival managers of the same exhausted order.
The State Monopoly, Same as Ever
The survey, presented by Khalil Shikaki, director of PSR, shows a public that’s increasingly skeptical of both armed rule and negotiated dead ends. Among likely voters in legislative elections, Fatah gets 32% and Hamas 29%, a gap within the poll’s margin of error, while third parties collectively receive 18%. Shikaki told participants at a media briefing, "The most dramatic finding has to do with the fact that Hamas has lost significant support from the Palestinian public."
That loss is sharpest in the West Bank, where support for Hamas fell from 32% 10 months ago to 18%. In Gaza, it dropped from 41% to 33%. Shikaki said the post-October 7 surge in Hamas support was tied less to ideology than to the perception that Hamas was confronting Israel while anger over Israeli policies and settler violence was rising. "The act itself of resorting to armed struggle in the eyes of the Palestinians was enough for them to support Hamas," he said during the presentation. The public mood has since shifted. Only 20% now say Hamas emerged victorious from the Gaza war, down from 39% 10 months earlier, while 60% say neither side won and 15% say Israel emerged victorious.
Satisfaction with Hamas’ performance during the war has also fallen, from 60% to 42%. Yet the survey shows no appetite for a simple surrender to another authority. Seventy-two percent oppose Hamas giving up its weapons before a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and 72% also believe that if Hamas disarmed first, the war would eventually resume and Israel would not completely withdraw. The numbers point to a grim logic people know too well: unilateral concessions don’t buy safety when the other side keeps the guns and the borders.
The Oslo Racket, Still Running
General support for a two-state solution stands at 44%, essentially unchanged from 10 months ago. When respondents were offered a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, support rose to 56%, including 61% in Gaza. But the more revealing shift is in method, not slogan. Negotiations are now seen as the most effective strategy by 44% of respondents, up from 36% 10 months ago and the highest figure PSR has recorded in four years. Support for armed struggle as the most effective means fell from 41% to 27%, its lowest level in the same period. Support for peaceful popular resistance rose from 14% to 19%.
Shikaki cautioned against reading that as a clean rejection of armed resistance. Palestinians remain evenly divided over its broader effectiveness: half believe armed resistance has failed to protect Palestinians or end the occupation and instead contributed to the destruction of Gaza and refugee camps in the northern West Bank, while the other half reject that view. The divide is stark by geography. In Gaza, 65% agree armed resistance has been ineffective. In the West Bank, only 35% do. The survey captures a population pulled between fear, anger, and the familiar promise that some future round of talks or force will finally work, even though the machinery keeps grinding on.
Only 23% of Palestinians overall say they feel personally safe and that their families are safe. In the West Bank, that figure falls to 17%, compared with 31% in Gaza. The same poll says 83% believe corruption exists in PA institutions, and 65% describe the PA as a burden rather than an achievement. That’s not a confidence problem. That’s a legitimacy collapse with paperwork.
Vacuum, Succession, and the Election Trap
The leadership vacuum is opening space for figures outside the current arrangement. Shikaki said there is "a fertile ground in the upcoming election for groups, pluralists, political parties, new leaders who want to lead," adding that dissatisfaction with Fatah and Hamas is creating an opportunity for third parties and new parties that don’t exist yet. He said younger Palestinians are among the most critical constituencies toward the PA and are less ideologically aligned with Hamas than older generations. They also show lower support for the traditional two-state framework and relatively greater openness to a single democratic state with equal rights.
The most immediate beneficiary of that vacuum appears to be imprisoned Fatah figure Marwan Barghouti. When respondents were asked who was best suited to succeed Abbas, 39% chose Barghouti, compared with 16% for Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya and 15% for Mohammed Dahlan. In a hypothetical presidential election among likely voters involving Barghouti, al-Hayya, and Abbas, Barghouti gets 54%, compared with 26% for al-Hayya and 14% for Abbas. Meanwhile, 79% of respondents want Abbas to resign.
Asked whether Barghouti, despite being in an Israeli prison, could emerge as the principal alternative in the Palestinian elections, Shikaki said imprisonment limits his ability to campaign directly but doesn’t necessarily block a candidacy or an electoral list linked to him. "Technically, he can do that. Legally, he can do that, unless the Palestinian Authority leadership, that is, the president, decides to issue a decree whereby this is made impossible for him on legal grounds. Right now, there is nothing to prevent him from doing so. The question is going to be how credible this electoral list is going to be," he told The Media Line.
He added that Barghouti’s previous attempts to position himself independently of the official Fatah leadership could make a strong parliamentary showing a path to a later presidential run. "That’s, in my view, a very, very credible scenario. I can’t guarantee that this is going to be the case, but I think this would be the most credible scenario," he said.
Palestinian legislative elections are scheduled for November 28, with presidential elections expected in early 2027. Israel’s election is set for October 27, about one month before the Palestinian vote. Shikaki said the Israeli result could shape whether Palestinians think their own elections and diplomacy can change anything. A government without some of the current coalition’s far-right components, he argued, could increase confidence in political participation. A renewed Netanyahu-led government could push the other way. "So, if on the other hand, it seems like Netanyahu is going to gain, I think this would be a message for Palestinians that these elections are going to be worthless," he said.
"That is, that there will be nothing to be gained by going to elections because Israel isn’t either going to allow them or that whoever is elected isn’t going to be in a position to make much of a difference, whether through violence or diplomacy, as we clearly see now in the current survey, violence is no longer seen as effective," he added.
He said another Netanyahu-led government, along with continued settler violence and what Palestinians perceive as terrorism in the West Bank, could revive support for armed resistance and the belief that "Palestinians have to fight back and defend themselves violently if needed," he said. The survey, then, doesn’t show a settled political future. It shows a public stuck between rival authorities, with no convincing exit in sight.
The poll was conducted between August 5 and 8 among 1,270 Palestinians: 830 in the West Bank and 440 in Gaza. Interviews were face-to-face, with residents displaced from inaccessible areas of Gaza interviewed in shelters. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.