Kyiv faces a devastating winter, its air defenses depleted, as NATO members stand accused of "abjectly failing" in defense planning. This military crisis, unfolding on Europe's borders, lays bare the continent's selective priorities: a continent "idle" in protecting some, yet aggressively militarizing its frontiers against others.
Jack Watling, senior research fellow for applied military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote in The Guardian that Patriot missile supplies have run out this year. Ukraine's intercepts have fallen from more than 70% to none. Russia now strikes Ukraine’s infrastructure night after night with impunity.
Watling described the tragedy as "long foretold," stating there are no quick fixes. Ukraine received Patriot air defence systems from its international partners in 2023. The US-supplied missile interceptor proved an effective shield against Russian strikes. Vladimir Putin had described Russia’s latest generation of ballistic missiles as "Invincible" in 2018, unleashing that arsenal across Ukraine in 2022.
Countering ballistic missiles is neither simple nor cheap. A defensive system needs remarkable sophistication to intercept a tactical ballistic missile like Russia’s Iskander. These targets descend from the high atmosphere at more than five times the speed of sound, maneuvering through the air. The defensive system must track the precise location and communicate this to the intercepting missile, which adjusts course while climbing against gravity. Building the necessary radars, data links, and interceptors requires immense research and development.
Fortress Europe's Selective Security
Across NATO, most states have been content for Washington to invest over decades to make the Patriot effective. The US and licensed manufacturers in Germany and Japan produce about 840 Patriot interceptors a year. Approximately 240 of these are older, larger PAC-2 interceptors, while 600 are smaller PAC-3s. Russia, by contrast, produces about 750 Iskander missiles annually and seeks to increase this output. Russia also uses air-launched Kinzhal ballistic missiles and repurposed air-defence missiles, alongside its arsenal of cruise missiles and drones.
To ensure a high probability of success, it is generally recommended to fire two to three interceptors against each ballistic missile. Given Ukraine's vast size and the launchers’ limited coverage, Kyiv would ideally need three to four times the annual global production capacity of Patriot missiles for adequate protection. Countries supporting Ukraine have therefore had to deplete their own stockpiles.
Even before the US decision to attack Iran, western allies were nervous about depleting their stocks, knowing resupply would take a long time. The US attack on Iran, which prompted Tehran to fire ballistic missiles across the Middle East, created an acute global shortage. Where Russia typically fires fewer than 10 ballistic missiles in a single attack, Iran launched upwards of 170 a day during the current and last year’s war. Some of Iran’s missiles were advanced; in one instance, 17 Patriot interceptors were required to defeat a single missile. Iran holds many more missiles in storage.
The Global Arms Market and Human Cost
Watling wrote that Ukraine will not receive enough Patriots between now and the winter to save its critical national infrastructure. Kyiv must plan for a winter with severely disrupted power and disperse and fortify life-support systems such as water, sanitation, power, and heating. Kyiv is attempting to convince the US to activate Starlink satellite navigation modules over Russian territory to enable drones to hunt for Russian missile launchers. Watling noted that pulling off such a mission over a large area is extremely difficult, as the US recently found in Iran.
Another effort in Kyiv aims to attack the production of Russia’s ballistic missiles. These factories are well defended. To succeed, Ukraine’s partners would need to expand funding and industrial capacity for Ukraine’s nascent cruise-missile industry, or reopen questions of providing weapons systems like Germany’s Taurus, which Berlin withheld for fear of military escalation.
Watling concluded that NATO members have "abjectly failed" in defense planning. The numbers in this equation were known since before 2022, yet investments to expand Patriot production or mature alternative systems like the Franco-Italian SAMP-T were not made. This level of complacency is devastating for Ukraine today, and it risks Europe being bereft of defenses in the future. Watling found it "remarkable that Europe, watching the consequences unfold on its very borders, has remained so idle." This idleness in military defense stands in stark contrast to the continent's aggressive and well-funded border regime, which actively deters and criminalises movement for those seeking safety from other global conflicts.