Peru’s Growth Rises as Mining and Fishing Fall

Peru’s economy grew 3.23% in August from a year earlier, but the national statistics institute INEI reported sharply different results across industries: construction and commerce expanded while mining, hydrocarbons and fishing contracted. July’s growth was 3.56%. The headline number folds those unequal fortunes into one tidy figure.

The Growth Behind the Headline

Construction grew 10.34%, including a 19.33% rise in public works and a 7.63% increase in cement consumption. Commerce rose 6.89%. Car sales climbed 25.73%, helped by financing and vehicle fairs, while consumer loans at commercial banks reached S/ 89.5 billion, about US$26.0 billion, up 15.9%.

New light-vehicle sales increased 44.7% to 23,412 units, and consumer-goods imports rose 23.1% to US$1.46 billion. Borrowed money and purchases sit at the center of commerce’s expansion. The figures don't say who can comfortably carry the debt, or how widely the gains were shared.

Financial and insurance activity grew 3.19%, with deposits up 7.91% and credits up 3.98%. Business services rose 3.91%, government services 3.06%, and electricity, gas and water activity 6.61%. Manufacturing grew 4.18%, helped by primary precious-metal products, which surged 89.91% from a low base.

Extraction, Contraction, and the Cost of a Plan

Mining and hydrocarbons fell 5.53%, including a 6.14% drop in metal mining and a 1.35% decline in hydrocarbons. Copper output declined 5.3% to about 207,100 tonnes as ore grades fell at Antapaccay, a copper mine in southern Peru. Chinalco, the miner behind Toromocho, carried out minor planned maintenance there; Cerro Verde and Marcobre also produced less. Southern Peru Copper, the Peruvian arm of New York-listed Southern Copper (SCCO), was among the miners INEI named as having lower output.

Zinc production dropped 28.1% for a seventh consecutive month as Antamina processed more copper-only ore. INEI said that shift followed the mine’s plan. Silver output fell 10.4% and gold 0.9%, while molybdenum rose 12.5% and iron 9.2%; together, those increases added 1.10 percentage points to the mining sector’s result. Average copper prices rose 48.9% from a year earlier to record highs even as Peruvian copper volumes fell.

Crude oil output dropped 10.85%, its 10th consecutive decline, amid PetroTal’s work on up to five wells at Lot 95. Fishing fell 17.33%, while anchovy landings for fishmeal plunged 58.1% to 2,602 tonnes. The state El Niño commission ENFEN noted that giant squid fishing had been suspended since July 18. Fresh fish landings rose 11.54%, easing the sector’s decline. INEI didn't provide an El Niño estimate for the fishing drop.

Official Forecasts, Official Limits

Total exports grew 17.75% on larger shipments. Traditional products rose 20.89%, non-traditional products 10.32%; central bank trade data put exports at US$10.8 billion and imports at US$6.1 billion. Apparel output fell 12.32%, while jewellery rose 49.3% and containers and trailers 194.43%. INEI named the United States as a market for jewellery and containers and trailers, and the United States and Germany as markets for apparel.

INEI’s preliminary figures drew on information available Wednesday, October 14. The institute, led by Gaspar Morán Flores, compiles the monthly output index that officials and media report as monthly GDP growth. The central bank cut its 2026 growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.4% in September, citing El Niño; its survey showed analysts also expected 3.2%. The International Monetary Fund’s October outlook projected 3%, up from 2.8% in April.

Output grew 3.14% from January to August and 3.31% over the 12 months to August. Seasonally adjusted output rose 0.22% from July. INEI scheduled its September output figure for Sunday, November 15, while the report said mining’s recovery from August’s decline remained uncertain. It doesn't describe a grassroots response or community-led alternative to the decisions and production plans recorded in the figures.